Oreilly Automotive Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1130.72
| ORLY Stock | USD 1,146 13.59 1.17% |
OReilly |
OReilly Automotive Target Price Odds to finish over 1130.72
The tendency of OReilly Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 1,131 in 90 days |
| 1,146 | 90 days | 1,131 | about 22.71 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of OReilly Automotive to stay above $ 1,131 in 90 days from now is about 22.71 (This OReilly Automotive probability density function shows the probability of OReilly Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of OReilly Automotive price to stay between $ 1,131 and its current price of $1146.03 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.36 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days OReilly Automotive has a beta of 0.29. This indicates as returns on the market go up, OReilly Automotive average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding OReilly Automotive will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally OReilly Automotive has an alpha of 0.0957, implying that it can generate a 0.0957 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). OReilly Automotive Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for OReilly Automotive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OReilly Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of OReilly Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
OReilly Automotive Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. OReilly Automotive is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the OReilly Automotive's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold OReilly Automotive, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of OReilly Automotive within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 42.36 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
OReilly Automotive Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of OReilly Automotive for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for OReilly Automotive can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| OReilly Automotive currently holds 7.84 B in liabilities. OReilly Automotive has a current ratio of 0.69, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about OReilly Automotive's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| OReilly Automotive has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Disposition of 275 shares by Montellano Najera Jose A of OReilly Automotive at 1041.75 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
OReilly Automotive Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of OReilly Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential OReilly Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. OReilly Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 279.1 M |
OReilly Automotive Technical Analysis
OReilly Automotive's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. OReilly Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of OReilly Automotive. In general, you should focus on analyzing OReilly Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
OReilly Automotive Predictive Forecast Models
OReilly Automotive's time-series forecasting models is one of many OReilly Automotive's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary OReilly Automotive's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about OReilly Automotive
Checking the ongoing alerts about OReilly Automotive for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for OReilly Automotive help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| OReilly Automotive currently holds 7.84 B in liabilities. OReilly Automotive has a current ratio of 0.69, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about OReilly Automotive's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| OReilly Automotive has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Disposition of 275 shares by Montellano Najera Jose A of OReilly Automotive at 1041.75 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Additional Tools for OReilly Stock Analysis
When running OReilly Automotive's price analysis, check to measure OReilly Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OReilly Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of OReilly Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OReilly Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OReilly Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OReilly Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.