Oncolytics Biotech Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 6.50
| ONCY Stock | USD 1.03 0.09 8.04% |
Oncolytics |
Oncolytics Biotech Target Price Odds to finish over 6.50
The tendency of Oncolytics Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 6.50 or more in 90 days |
| 1.03 | 90 days | 6.50 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Oncolytics Biotech to move over $ 6.50 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Oncolytics Biotech probability density function shows the probability of Oncolytics Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Oncolytics Biotech price to stay between its current price of $ 1.03 and $ 6.50 at the end of the 90-day period is about 58.48 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Oncolytics Biotech has a beta of -0.33. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Oncolytics Biotech are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Oncolytics Biotech is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Oncolytics Biotech has an alpha of 0.3614, implying that it can generate a 0.36 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Oncolytics Biotech Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Oncolytics Biotech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oncolytics Biotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oncolytics Biotech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oncolytics Biotech Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Oncolytics Biotech is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Oncolytics Biotech's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Oncolytics Biotech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Oncolytics Biotech within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.36 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Oncolytics Biotech Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Oncolytics Biotech for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Oncolytics Biotech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Oncolytics Biotech had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Oncolytics Biotech has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Net Loss for the year was (27.75 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Oncolytics Biotech currently holds about 32.36 M in cash with (28.45 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.55. | |
| Oncolytics Biotech has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures |
Oncolytics Biotech Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Oncolytics Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Oncolytics Biotech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oncolytics Biotech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 34.9 M |
Oncolytics Biotech Technical Analysis
Oncolytics Biotech's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Oncolytics Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Oncolytics Biotech. In general, you should focus on analyzing Oncolytics Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Oncolytics Biotech Predictive Forecast Models
Oncolytics Biotech's time-series forecasting models is one of many Oncolytics Biotech's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Oncolytics Biotech's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Oncolytics Biotech
Checking the ongoing alerts about Oncolytics Biotech for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Oncolytics Biotech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Oncolytics Biotech had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Oncolytics Biotech has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Net Loss for the year was (27.75 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Oncolytics Biotech currently holds about 32.36 M in cash with (28.45 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.55. | |
| Oncolytics Biotech has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures |
Additional Tools for Oncolytics Stock Analysis
When running Oncolytics Biotech's price analysis, check to measure Oncolytics Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oncolytics Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of Oncolytics Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oncolytics Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oncolytics Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oncolytics Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.