Origin Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 45.63

OBK Stock   45.63  0.15  0.33%   
Origin Bancorp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Origin Bancorp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Origin Bancorp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Origin Bancorp over a specific time period. For example, OBK260417C00045000 is a PUT option contract on Origin Bancorp's common stock with a strick price of 45.0 expiring on 2026-04-17. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 69 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.35, and an ask price of $3.1. The implied volatility as of the 7th of February is 69.0. View All Origin options

Closest to current price Origin long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration

Origin Bancorp's future price is the expected price of Origin Bancorp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Origin Bancorp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Origin Bancorp Analysis, Origin Bancorp Valuation, Origin Bancorp Correlation, Origin Bancorp Hype Analysis, Origin Bancorp Volatility, Origin Bancorp Price History as well as Origin Bancorp Performance.
For more information on how to buy Origin Stock please use our How to buy in Origin Stock guide.At this time, Origin Bancorp's Price Sales Ratio is quite stable compared to the past year. Price Fair Value is expected to rise to 1.40 this year, although the value of Price Cash Flow Ratio will most likely fall to 10.44. Please specify Origin Bancorp's target price for which you would like Origin Bancorp odds to be computed.

Origin Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish over 45.63

The tendency of Origin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 45.63 90 days 45.63 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Origin Bancorp to move above the current price in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Origin Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Origin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Origin Bancorp has a beta of 0.88. This indicates Origin Bancorp market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Origin Bancorp is expected to follow. Additionally Origin Bancorp has an alpha of 0.3566, implying that it can generate a 0.36 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Origin Bancorp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Origin Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
43.8945.4847.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
41.0749.2250.81
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
44.4045.9947.58
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
43.8648.2053.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Origin Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Origin Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Origin Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Origin Bancorp.

Origin Bancorp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Origin Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Origin Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Origin Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Origin Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.36
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.88
σ
Overall volatility
2.94
Ir
Information ratio 0.22

Origin Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Origin Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Origin Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: What Makes Origin Bancorp a Strong Momentum Stock Buy Now

Origin Bancorp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Origin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Origin Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Origin Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding31.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments104.2 M

Origin Bancorp Technical Analysis

Origin Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Origin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Origin Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Origin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Origin Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models

Origin Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Origin Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Origin Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Origin Bancorp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Origin Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Origin Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: What Makes Origin Bancorp a Strong Momentum Stock Buy Now
When determining whether Origin Bancorp is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Origin Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Origin Bancorp Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Origin Bancorp Stock:
Check out Origin Bancorp Analysis, Origin Bancorp Valuation, Origin Bancorp Correlation, Origin Bancorp Hype Analysis, Origin Bancorp Volatility, Origin Bancorp Price History as well as Origin Bancorp Performance.
For more information on how to buy Origin Stock please use our How to buy in Origin Stock guide.
You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Bancorp. Anticipated expansion of Origin directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Origin Bancorp assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.106
Dividend Share
0.6
Earnings Share
2.4
Revenue Per Share
11.066
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.202
Origin Bancorp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Origin's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Origin Bancorp's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Origin Bancorp's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Origin Bancorp's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Origin Bancorp should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Origin Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.