Novabay Pharmaceuticals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0
| NBY Stock | USD 0.53 0.03 6.00% |
NovaBay |
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Target Price Odds to finish below 0
The tendency of NovaBay Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.00 or more in 90 days |
| 0.53 | 90 days | 0.00 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals to drop to $ 0.00 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This NovaBay Pharmaceuticals probability density function shows the probability of NovaBay Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals price to stay between $ 0.00 and its current price of $0.53 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.43 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon NovaBay Pharmaceuticals has a beta of -0.12. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NovaBay Pharmaceuticals are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NovaBay Pharmaceuticals is likely to outperform the market. Additionally NovaBay Pharmaceuticals has an alpha of 0.3328, implying that it can generate a 0.33 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NovaBay Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NovaBay Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NovaBay Pharmaceuticals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.33 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NovaBay Pharmaceuticals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| NovaBay Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| NovaBay Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| NovaBay Pharmaceuticals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| NovaBay Pharmaceuticals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 14.73 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (9.64 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.64 M. | |
| NovaBay Pharmaceuticals has about 5.36 M in cash with (4.13 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.07. | |
| NovaBay Pharmaceuticals has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Announces the Further Adjournment of the Special Meeting of Stockholders |
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of NovaBay Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 120.4 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.1 M |
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NovaBay Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals. In general, you should focus on analyzing NovaBay Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Predictive Forecast Models
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' time-series forecasting models is one of many NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NovaBay Pharmaceuticals
Checking the ongoing alerts about NovaBay Pharmaceuticals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NovaBay Pharmaceuticals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| NovaBay Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| NovaBay Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| NovaBay Pharmaceuticals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| NovaBay Pharmaceuticals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 14.73 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (9.64 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.64 M. | |
| NovaBay Pharmaceuticals has about 5.36 M in cash with (4.13 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.07. | |
| NovaBay Pharmaceuticals has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Announces the Further Adjournment of the Special Meeting of Stockholders |
Additional Tools for NovaBay Stock Analysis
When running NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NovaBay Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.