Mitek Systems Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.09
| MITK Stock | USD 8.98 0.43 5.03% |
Closest to current price Mitek long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Mitek |
Mitek Systems Target Price Odds to finish below 0.09
The tendency of Mitek Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.09 or more in 90 days |
| 8.98 | 90 days | 0.09 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mitek Systems to drop to $ 0.09 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Mitek Systems probability density function shows the probability of Mitek Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mitek Systems price to stay between $ 0.09 and its current price of $8.98 at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.34 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.4 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Mitek Systems will likely underperform. Additionally Mitek Systems has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mitek Systems Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Mitek Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mitek Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mitek Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mitek Systems Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mitek Systems is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mitek Systems' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mitek Systems, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mitek Systems within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.40 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Mitek Systems Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mitek Systems for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mitek Systems can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mitek Systems generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Mitek Systems has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Mitek Systems has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Mitek Systems, Inc. Shares Sold by Sargent Investment Group LLC |
Mitek Systems Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mitek Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mitek Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mitek Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 133.6 M |
Mitek Systems Technical Analysis
Mitek Systems' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mitek Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mitek Systems. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mitek Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mitek Systems Predictive Forecast Models
Mitek Systems' time-series forecasting models is one of many Mitek Systems' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mitek Systems' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mitek Systems
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mitek Systems for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mitek Systems help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mitek Systems generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Mitek Systems has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Mitek Systems has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Mitek Systems, Inc. Shares Sold by Sargent Investment Group LLC |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Mitek Stock
When determining whether Mitek Systems is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Mitek Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Mitek Systems Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Mitek Systems Stock:Check out Mitek Systems Backtesting, Mitek Systems Valuation, Mitek Systems Correlation, Mitek Systems Hype Analysis, Mitek Systems Volatility, Mitek Systems History as well as Mitek Systems Performance. For more information on how to buy Mitek Stock please use our How to buy in Mitek Stock guide.You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mitek Systems. If investors know Mitek will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mitek Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.94) | Earnings Share (0.14) | Revenue Per Share 3.59 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.044 | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Mitek Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mitek that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mitek Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mitek Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mitek Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mitek Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mitek Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mitek Systems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mitek Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.