Magyar Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.35
| MGYR Stock | USD 12.90 0.02 0.15% |
Magyar |
Magyar Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish below 12.35
The tendency of Magyar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 12.35 or more in 90 days |
| 12.90 | 90 days | 12.35 | about 62.25 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Magyar Bancorp to drop to $ 12.35 or more in 90 days from now is about 62.25 (This Magyar Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Magyar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Magyar Bancorp price to stay between $ 12.35 and its current price of $12.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 36.94 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Magyar Bancorp has a beta of 0.14. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Magyar Bancorp average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Magyar Bancorp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Magyar Bancorp has an alpha of 0.0489, implying that it can generate a 0.0489 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Magyar Bancorp Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Magyar Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magyar Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Magyar Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Magyar Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Magyar Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Magyar Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Magyar Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Magyar Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Magyar Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Magyar Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Magyar Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Magyar Bancorp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 18.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Magyar Telekom reports Q3 results |
Magyar Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Magyar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Magyar Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Magyar Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.3 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 1.3 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.2 | |
| Shares Float | 5.2 M |
Magyar Bancorp Technical Analysis
Magyar Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Magyar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Magyar Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Magyar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Magyar Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
Magyar Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Magyar Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Magyar Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Magyar Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Magyar Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Magyar Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Magyar Bancorp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 18.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Magyar Telekom reports Q3 results |
Additional Tools for Magyar Stock Analysis
When running Magyar Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure Magyar Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Magyar Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Magyar Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Magyar Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Magyar Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Magyar Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.