Merchants Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 42.48

MBIN Stock  USD 42.48  0.31  0.74%   
Merchants Bancorp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Merchants Bancorp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Merchants Bancorp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Merchants Bancorp over a specific time period. For example, MBIN260515C00040000 is a PUT option contract on Merchants Bancorp's common stock with a strick price of 40.0 expiring on 2026-05-15. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 98 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.0, and an ask price of $7.0. The implied volatility as of the 7th of February is 98.0. View All Merchants options

Closest to current price Merchants long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration

Merchants Bancorp's future price is the expected price of Merchants Bancorp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Merchants Bancorp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Merchants Bancorp Analysis, Merchants Bancorp Valuation, Merchants Bancorp Correlation, Merchants Bancorp Hype Analysis, Merchants Bancorp Volatility, Merchants Bancorp Price History as well as Merchants Bancorp Performance.
To learn how to invest in Merchants Stock, please use our How to Invest in Merchants Bancorp guide.At this time, Merchants Bancorp's Price Earnings Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 7th of February 2026, Price Book Value Ratio is likely to grow to 1.29, while Price To Sales Ratio is likely to drop 1.09. Please specify Merchants Bancorp's target price for which you would like Merchants Bancorp odds to be computed.

Merchants Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish over 42.48

The tendency of Merchants Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 42.48 90 days 42.48 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Merchants Bancorp to move above the current price in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Merchants Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Merchants Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.31 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Merchants Bancorp will likely underperform. Additionally Merchants Bancorp has an alpha of 0.3848, implying that it can generate a 0.38 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Merchants Bancorp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Merchants Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merchants Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
40.0842.8845.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
38.2347.0449.84
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
41.3944.1947.00
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
43.0747.3352.54
Details

Merchants Bancorp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Merchants Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Merchants Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Merchants Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Merchants Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.38
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.31
σ
Overall volatility
3.05
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

Merchants Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Merchants Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Merchants Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Merchants Bancorp currently holds about 472.79 M in cash with (835.28 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.97.
Roughly 45.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
On 2nd of January 2026 Merchants Bancorp paid $ 0.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from prnewswire.com: Merchants Bancorp Set to Join SP SmallCap 600

Merchants Bancorp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Merchants Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Merchants Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merchants Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding45.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments880.9 M

Merchants Bancorp Technical Analysis

Merchants Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Merchants Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Merchants Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Merchants Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Merchants Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models

Merchants Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Merchants Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Merchants Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Merchants Bancorp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Merchants Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Merchants Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Merchants Bancorp currently holds about 472.79 M in cash with (835.28 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.97.
Roughly 45.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
On 2nd of January 2026 Merchants Bancorp paid $ 0.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from prnewswire.com: Merchants Bancorp Set to Join SP SmallCap 600
When determining whether Merchants Bancorp is a strong investment it is important to analyze Merchants Bancorp's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Merchants Bancorp's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Merchants Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Will Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance sector continue expanding? Could Merchants diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merchants Bancorp. Expected growth trajectory for Merchants significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Merchants Bancorp data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.30)
Dividend Share
0.4
Earnings Share
3.81
Revenue Per Share
12.288
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.18)
Merchants Bancorp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Merchants's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Merchants Bancorp's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Merchants Bancorp's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that Merchants Bancorp's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Merchants Bancorp represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, Merchants Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.