Forester Value Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 6.17
| FVALX Fund | USD 5.78 0.03 0.52% |
Forester |
Forester Value Target Price Odds to finish over 6.17
The tendency of Forester Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 6.17 or more in 90 days |
| 5.78 | 90 days | 6.17 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Forester Value to move over $ 6.17 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Forester Value Fund probability density function shows the probability of Forester Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Forester Value price to stay between its current price of $ 5.78 and $ 6.17 at the end of the 90-day period is about 64.55 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Forester Value has a beta of 0.0414. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Forester Value average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Forester Value Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Forester Value Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Forester Value Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Forester Value
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Forester Value. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Forester Value Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Forester Value is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Forester Value's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Forester Value Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Forester Value within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.31 |
Forester Value Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Forester Value for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Forester Value can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Forester Value generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Form 485BPOS FORESTER FUNDS INC - StreetInsider | |
| The fund retains about 31.27% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Forester Value Technical Analysis
Forester Value's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Forester Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Forester Value Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Forester Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Forester Value Predictive Forecast Models
Forester Value's time-series forecasting models is one of many Forester Value's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Forester Value's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Forester Value
Checking the ongoing alerts about Forester Value for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Forester Value help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Forester Value generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Form 485BPOS FORESTER FUNDS INC - StreetInsider | |
| The fund retains about 31.27% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Forester Mutual Fund
Forester Value financial ratios help investors to determine whether Forester Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Forester with respect to the benefits of owning Forester Value security.
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