Fairfax Financial Holdings Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 14.52
| FRFXF Stock | USD 14.13 0.00 0.00% |
Fairfax |
Fairfax Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 14.52
The tendency of Fairfax Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 14.52 or more in 90 days |
| 14.13 | 90 days | 14.52 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fairfax Financial to move over $ 14.52 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Fairfax Financial Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Fairfax Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fairfax Financial price to stay between its current price of $ 14.13 and $ 14.52 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.09 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Fairfax Financial Holdings has a beta of -0.0229. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Fairfax Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Fairfax Financial Holdings is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Fairfax Financial Holdings has an alpha of 0.0628, implying that it can generate a 0.0628 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Fairfax Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Fairfax Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fairfax Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fairfax Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fairfax Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fairfax Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fairfax Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fairfax Financial Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fairfax Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Fairfax Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fairfax Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fairfax Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fairfax Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.9 M |
Fairfax Financial Technical Analysis
Fairfax Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fairfax Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fairfax Financial Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fairfax Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Fairfax Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Fairfax Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fairfax Financial's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fairfax Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Fairfax Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Fairfax Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Fairfax Financial options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Fairfax Pink Sheet
Fairfax Financial financial ratios help investors to determine whether Fairfax Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Fairfax with respect to the benefits of owning Fairfax Financial security.