Elf Beauty Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 109.83
| ELF Stock | USD 116.07 11.91 11.43% |
ELF |
ELF Beauty Target Price Odds to finish below 109.83
The tendency of ELF Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 109.83 or more in 90 days |
| 116.07 | 90 days | 109.83 | about 26.34 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ELF Beauty to drop to $ 109.83 or more in 90 days from now is about 26.34 (This ELF Beauty probability density function shows the probability of ELF Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ELF Beauty price to stay between $ 109.83 and its current price of $116.07 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.31 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.1 suggesting ELF Beauty market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, ELF Beauty is expected to follow. Additionally ELF Beauty has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ELF Beauty Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ELF Beauty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ELF Beauty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ELF Beauty Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ELF Beauty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ELF Beauty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ELF Beauty, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ELF Beauty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.8 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.10 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 23.57 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
ELF Beauty Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ELF Beauty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ELF Beauty can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ELF Beauty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ELF Beauty has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ELF Stock Surges on Strong Q2 Performance |
ELF Beauty Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ELF Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ELF Beauty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ELF Beauty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 108.2 M |
ELF Beauty Technical Analysis
ELF Beauty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ELF Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ELF Beauty. In general, you should focus on analyzing ELF Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ELF Beauty Predictive Forecast Models
ELF Beauty's time-series forecasting models is one of many ELF Beauty's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ELF Beauty's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ELF Beauty
Checking the ongoing alerts about ELF Beauty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ELF Beauty help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ELF Beauty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ELF Beauty has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ELF Stock Surges on Strong Q2 Performance |
Check out ELF Beauty Backtesting, ELF Beauty Valuation, ELF Beauty Correlation, ELF Beauty Hype Analysis, ELF Beauty Volatility, ELF Beauty History as well as ELF Beauty Performance. For more detail on how to invest in ELF Stock please use our How to Invest in ELF Beauty guide.You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Is Personal Care Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ELF Beauty. If investors know ELF will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ELF Beauty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.13) | Earnings Share 2.09 | Revenue Per Share 20.487 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.5 | Return On Assets 0.0961 |
The market value of ELF Beauty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ELF that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ELF Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ELF Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ELF Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ELF Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ELF Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ELF Beauty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ELF Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.