Amazon Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 201.7
| AMZN Stock | USD 201.70 0.91 0.45% |
Amazon |
Amazon Target Price Odds to finish below 201.7
The tendency of Amazon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 201.70 | 90 days | 201.70 | about 91.67 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Amazon to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 91.67 (This Amazon Inc probability density function shows the probability of Amazon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.27 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Amazon will likely underperform. Additionally Amazon Inc has an alpha of 0.0825, implying that it can generate a 0.0825 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Amazon Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Amazon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amazon Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Amazon Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Amazon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Amazon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Amazon Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Amazon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Amazon Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Amazon for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Amazon Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Amazon Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Amazon Inc currently holds 135.61 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.2, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Amazon Inc has a current ratio of 0.92, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Amazon's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Amazon Inc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 64.0% of Amazon shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: AQR Capital Managements Strategic Acquisition in Launch One Acquisition Corp |
Amazon Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Amazon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Amazon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amazon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 86.8 B |
Amazon Technical Analysis
Amazon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Amazon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Amazon Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Amazon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Amazon Predictive Forecast Models
Amazon's time-series forecasting models is one of many Amazon's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Amazon's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Amazon Inc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Amazon for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Amazon Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Amazon Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Amazon Inc currently holds 135.61 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.2, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Amazon Inc has a current ratio of 0.92, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Amazon's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Amazon Inc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 64.0% of Amazon shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: AQR Capital Managements Strategic Acquisition in Launch One Acquisition Corp |
Check out Amazon Backtesting, Amazon Valuation, Amazon Correlation, Amazon Hype Analysis, Amazon Volatility, Amazon History as well as Amazon Performance. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Is Broadline Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amazon. If investors know Amazon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amazon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.521 | Earnings Share 4.68 | Revenue Per Share 59.486 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.11 | Return On Assets 0.0707 |
The market value of Amazon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amazon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amazon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amazon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amazon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amazon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amazon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amazon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amazon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.