The Tocqueville Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for The Tocqueville - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When The Tocqueville prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in The Tocqueville price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of The Tocqueville. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past The Tocqueville observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older The Tocqueville Fund observations.

Predictive Modules for The Tocqueville

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as The Tocqueville. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 54.87 55.53 56.19 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 49.98 59.80 60.46 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 51.24 53.40 55.55 Details

The Tocqueville Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

The Tocqueville Risk Indicators

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

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