Direxion Etf Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| EVAV Etf | USD 28.62 0.00 0.00% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Direxion on the next trading day is expected to be 28.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.96. Direxion Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of Direxion's share price is below 20 suggesting that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Direxion hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Direxion from the perspective of Direxion response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Direxion using Direxion's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Direxion using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Direxion's stock price.
Direxion Implied Volatility | 0.31 |
Direxion's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Direxion stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Direxion's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Direxion stock will not fluctuate a lot when Direxion's options are near their expiration.
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Direxion on the next trading day is expected to be 28.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.96. Direxion after-hype prediction price | $ 28.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Direxion | Build AI portfolio with Direxion Etf |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Direxion contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Direxion will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0194% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Direxion trading at $ 28.62, that is roughly $ 0.005545 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Direxion's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Direxion options at the current volatility level of 0.31%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Direxion Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Direxion's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Direxion's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Direxion stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Direxion's open interest, investors have to compare it to Direxion's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Direxion is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Direxion. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Direxion Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Direxion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Direxion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Direxion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Direxion 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Direxion on the next trading day is expected to be 28.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03, mean absolute percentage error of 1.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Direxion Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Direxion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Direxion Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Direxion | Direxion Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Direxion etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Direxion etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.4313 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2293 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0343 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0362 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.955 |
Predictive Modules for Direxion
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Direxion. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Direxion After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Direxion at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Direxion or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Direxion, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Direxion Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Direxion's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Direxion's historical news coverage. Direxion's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.62 and 28.62, respectively. We have considered Direxion's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Direxion is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Direxion is based on 3 months time horizon.
Direxion Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Direxion is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Direxion backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Direxion, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
28.62 | 28.62 | 0.00 |
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Direxion Hype Timeline
Direxion is currently traded for 28.62. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Direxion is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Direxion is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.62. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any etf could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.Direxion Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Direxion's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Direxion's future price movements. Getting to know how Direxion's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Direxion may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TOT | Advisor Managed Portfolios | 0.05 | 2 per month | 0.76 | (0.04) | 1.17 | (1.23) | 3.68 | |
| BZQ | ProShares UltraShort MSCI | 0.09 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 3.58 | (5.34) | 20.85 | |
| COIG | Leverage Shares 2X | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 10.15 | (14.10) | 34.23 | |
| STAX | Macquarie ETF Trust | 0.05 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (1.41) | 0.08 | (0.04) | 0.23 | |
| AMZD | Direxion Daily AMZN | 0.09 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.91 | (2.92) | 13.29 | |
| MSFY | Kurv Yield Premium | 0.25 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.74 | (2.36) | 4.79 | |
| LMBO | Direxion Shares ETF | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 10.98 | (10.61) | 27.15 | |
| WCEO | Hypatia Women Ceo | (0.11) | 5 per month | 0.70 | 0.03 | 1.61 | (1.37) | 4.43 | |
| QQJG | Invesco ESG NASDAQ | 0.07 | 1 per month | 1.11 | (0.02) | 1.69 | (1.85) | 4.52 | |
| EVNT | AltShares Event Driven ETF | 0.07 | 9 per month | 0.28 | (0.07) | 0.62 | (0.62) | 2.55 |
Direxion Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Direxion etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Direxion could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Direxion by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Direxion Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Direxion etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Direxion shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Direxion etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Direxion entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Direxion Risk Indicators
The analysis of Direxion's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Direxion's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting direxion etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.84 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.83 | |||
| Variance | 14.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 19.04 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Direxion
The number of cover stories for Direxion depends on current market conditions and Direxion's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Direxion is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Direxion's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any etf could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
The market value of Direxion is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Direxion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Direxion's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Direxion's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Direxion's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Direxion's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Direxion's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Direxion is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Direxion's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.