Tractor Supply Stock Price Prediction
| TSCO Stock | USD 273.90 8.64 3.26% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
39
Oversold | Overbought |
Tractor Supply stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Tractor Supply shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Tractor Supply's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Tractor Supply and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Tractor Supply's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Tractor Supply, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Tractor Supply's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.62 | EPS Estimate Current Year 10.23 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.28 | Wall Street Target Price 248.96 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Tractor Supply based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Tractor stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Tractor Supply over a specific investment horizon. Using Tractor Supply hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tractor Supply from the perspective of Tractor Supply response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Tractor Supply using Tractor Supply's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Tractor using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Tractor Supply's stock price.
Tractor Supply Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Tractor Supply's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Tractor. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Tractor Supply stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Tractor Supply may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Tractor Supply and may potentially protect profits, hedge Tractor Supply with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 222.5915 | Short Percent 0.0901 | Short Ratio 9.17 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.5 M | 50 Day MA 250.5556 |
Tractor Supply Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Tractor Supply's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Tractor. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Tractor can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Tractor Supply. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Tractor Supply's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Tractor Supply.
Tractor Supply Implied Volatility | 67.28 |
Tractor Supply's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Tractor Supply stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Tractor Supply's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Tractor Supply stock will not fluctuate a lot when Tractor Supply's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Tractor Supply. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Tractor Supply to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Tractor because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Tractor Supply after-hype prediction price | USD 265.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Tractor contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Tractor Supply will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.2% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Tractor Supply trading at USD 273.9, that is roughly USD 11.52 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Tractor Supply's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Tractor Supply options at the current volatility level of 67.28%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Tractor |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tractor Supply's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tractor Supply After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tractor Supply at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tractor Supply or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tractor Supply, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tractor Supply Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tractor Supply's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tractor Supply's historical news coverage. Tractor Supply's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 263.92 and 266.60, respectively. We have considered Tractor Supply's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tractor Supply is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tractor Supply is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tractor Supply Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tractor Supply is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tractor Supply backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tractor Supply, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 1.39 | 2.04 | 0.51 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
273.90 | 265.26 | 0.00 |
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Tractor Supply Hype Timeline
Tractor Supply is at this time traded for 273.90. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.51. Tractor is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 21.86%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on Tractor Supply is about 86.44%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 273.39. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.57. Tractor Supply recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.09. The entity last dividend was issued on the 23rd of February 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 27th of September 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Tractor Supply Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Tractor Supply Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tractor Supply's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tractor Supply's future price movements. Getting to know how Tractor Supply's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tractor Supply may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TGT | Target | (2.29) | 10 per month | 1.01 | 0.1 | 2.39 | (2.17) | 15.06 | |
| LOW | Lowes Companies | (4.68) | 10 per month | 1.09 | 0.02 | 1.87 | (1.93) | 6.55 | |
| KSS | Kohls Corp | (0.67) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.87 | (4.92) | 14.13 | |
| GPS | Gap Inc | (0.48) | 10 per month | 2.31 | 0.02 | 4.93 | (3.87) | 12.81 | |
| WMT | Walmart | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.47 | 0.11 | 1.46 | (1.23) | 4.98 |
Tractor Supply Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tractor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tractor using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tractor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Tractor Supply Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Tractor Supply stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Tractor Supply, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Tractor Supply based on analysis of Tractor Supply hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Tractor Supply's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Tractor Supply's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0192 | 0.0164 | 0.0147 | 0.0155 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.61 | 1.76 | 1.59 | 1.67 |
Story Coverage note for Tractor Supply
The number of cover stories for Tractor Supply depends on current market conditions and Tractor Supply's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tractor Supply is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tractor Supply's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Tractor Supply Short Properties
Tractor Supply's future price predictability will typically decrease when Tractor Supply's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tractor Supply often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tractor Supply's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tractor Supply's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 109.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 397.1 M |
Check out Tractor Supply Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Tractor Stock, please use our How to Invest in Tractor Supply guide.Note that the Tractor Supply information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Tractor Supply's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Complementary Tools for Tractor Stock analysis
When running Tractor Supply's price analysis, check to measure Tractor Supply's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tractor Supply is operating at the current time. Most of Tractor Supply's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tractor Supply's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tractor Supply's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tractor Supply to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Tractor Supply's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tractor Supply. If investors know Tractor will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Tractor Supply listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Dividend Share 4.12 | Earnings Share 10.09 | Revenue Per Share 133.421 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
The market value of Tractor Supply is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Tractor that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Tractor Supply's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Tractor Supply's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Tractor Supply's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Tractor Supply's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tractor Supply's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Tractor Supply is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tractor Supply's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.