Sunnova Energy International Stock Price Prediction
| NOVA Stock | USD 4.34 0.34 8.50% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
36
Oversold | Overbought |
Sunnova Energy Inter stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Sunnova Energy shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Sunnova Energy's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Sunnova Energy and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Sunnova Energy's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Sunnova Energy International, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Sunnova Energy's stock price prediction:EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.54) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.24) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.85) | Wall Street Target Price 15.17 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.18) |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Sunnova Energy based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Sunnova stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Sunnova Energy over a specific investment horizon. Using Sunnova Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sunnova Energy International from the perspective of Sunnova Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Sunnova Energy using Sunnova Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Sunnova using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Sunnova Energy's stock price.
Sunnova Energy Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Sunnova Energy's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Sunnova. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Sunnova Energy stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Sunnova Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Sunnova Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Sunnova Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 10.9092 | Short Percent 0.4327 | Short Ratio 3.58 | Shares Short Prior Month 36.1 M | 50 Day MA 5.751 |
Sunnova Energy Inter Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Sunnova Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Sunnova. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Sunnova can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Sunnova Energy International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Sunnova Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Sunnova Energy.
Sunnova Energy Implied Volatility | 192.79 |
Sunnova Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Sunnova Energy International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Sunnova Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Sunnova Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Sunnova Energy's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Sunnova Energy. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Sunnova Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Sunnova because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Sunnova Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 4.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Sunnova contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Sunnova Energy International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 12.05% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Sunnova Energy trading at USD 4.34, that is roughly USD 0.52 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Sunnova Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Sunnova Energy International options at the current volatility level of 192.79%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sunnova |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sunnova Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Sunnova Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sunnova Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sunnova Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sunnova Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sunnova Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sunnova Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sunnova Energy's historical news coverage. Sunnova Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.20 and 11.79, respectively. We have considered Sunnova Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sunnova Energy is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sunnova Energy Inter is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sunnova Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sunnova Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sunnova Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sunnova Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.10 | 8.00 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.34 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
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Sunnova Energy Hype Timeline
Sunnova Energy Inter is now traded for 4.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.21. Sunnova is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -1.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Sunnova Energy is about 4274.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.13. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.34. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Sunnova Energy Inter has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.04. The entity recorded a loss per share of 3.53. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Sunnova Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Sunnova Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sunnova Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sunnova Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Sunnova Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sunnova Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ISUN | iSun Inc | 0.01 | 9 per month | 6.82 | 0.01 | 10.53 | (9.52) | 51.62 | |
| SOL | Emeren Group | (0.01) | 8 per month | 4.89 | 0 | 8.88 | (7.46) | 38.19 | |
| TYGO | Tigo Energy | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 12.63 | (10.81) | 40.77 | |
| SPWR | SunPower | 0.13 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 15.14 | (9.59) | 37.53 | |
| RUN | Sunrun Inc | (0.47) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 9.60 | (8.16) | 28.48 | |
| JKS | JinkoSolar Holding | 0.09 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 5.49 | (5.33) | 15.24 | |
| CSIQ | Canadian Solar | (1.08) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 4.48 | (5.41) | 15.39 |
Sunnova Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sunnova price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sunnova using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sunnova charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Sunnova Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Sunnova Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Sunnova Energy International, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Sunnova Energy based on analysis of Sunnova Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Sunnova Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Sunnova Energy's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 115.23 | 155.0 | 246.02 | 258.32 | PTB Ratio | 2.6 | 1.62 | 1.18 | 2.3 |
Story Coverage note for Sunnova Energy
The number of cover stories for Sunnova Energy depends on current market conditions and Sunnova Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sunnova Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sunnova Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sunnova Energy Short Properties
Sunnova Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sunnova Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sunnova Energy International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sunnova Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sunnova Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 118.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 212.8 M |
Check out Sunnova Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Sunnova Stock analysis
When running Sunnova Energy's price analysis, check to measure Sunnova Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sunnova Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Sunnova Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sunnova Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sunnova Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sunnova Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Sunnova Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sunnova Energy. If investors know Sunnova will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sunnova Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (3.53) | Revenue Per Share 6.089 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets (0.01) | Return On Equity (0.25) |
The market value of Sunnova Energy Inter is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sunnova that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sunnova Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sunnova Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sunnova Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sunnova Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sunnova Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sunnova Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sunnova Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.