Atmos Energy Stock Price Prediction
| ATO Stock | USD 118.13 1.20 1.03% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
34
Oversold | Overbought |
Atmos Energy stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Atmos Energy shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Atmos Energy's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Atmos Energy and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Atmos Energy's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Atmos Energy, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Atmos Energy's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.087 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.69 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.6 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.06 | Wall Street Target Price 122.89 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Atmos Energy based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Atmos stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Atmos Energy over a specific investment horizon. Using Atmos Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Atmos Energy from the perspective of Atmos Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Atmos Energy using Atmos Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Atmos using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Atmos Energy's stock price.
Atmos Energy Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Atmos Energy's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Atmos. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Atmos Energy stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Atmos Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Atmos Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Atmos Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 114.415 | Short Percent 0.0331 | Short Ratio 4.64 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.9 M | 50 Day MA 115.4584 |
Atmos Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Atmos Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Atmos. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Atmos can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Atmos Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Atmos Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Atmos Energy.
Atmos Energy Implied Volatility | 19.94 |
Atmos Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Atmos Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Atmos Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Atmos Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Atmos Energy's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Atmos Energy. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Atmos Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Atmos because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Atmos Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 118.12 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Atmos contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Atmos Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.25% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Atmos Energy trading at USD 118.13, that is roughly USD 1.47 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Atmos Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Atmos Energy options at the current volatility level of 19.94%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Atmos |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Atmos Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Atmos Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Atmos Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Atmos Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Atmos Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Atmos Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Atmos Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Atmos Energy's historical news coverage. Atmos Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 117.20 and 119.04, respectively. We have considered Atmos Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Atmos Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Atmos Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Atmos Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Atmos Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Atmos Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Atmos Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 0.92 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
118.13 | 118.12 | 0.01 |
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Atmos Energy Hype Timeline
On the 29th of April Atmos Energy is traded for 118.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Atmos is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 118.12. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Atmos Energy is about 2300.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 118.13. About 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.53. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Atmos Energy has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.74. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.26. The firm last dividend was issued on the 23rd of February 2024. Atmos Energy had 3:2 split on the 17th of May 1994. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Atmos Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Atmos Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Atmos Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Atmos Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Atmos Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Atmos Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NJR | NewJersey Resources | (0.66) | 11 per month | 1.20 | (0.01) | 2.05 | (1.99) | 7.11 | |
| OGS | One Gas | (0.95) | 10 per month | 1.50 | 0.01 | 2.60 | (2.16) | 7.90 | |
| NWN | Northwest Natural Gas | 0.10 | 8 per month | 2.35 | (0.02) | 2.98 | (2.70) | 17.15 | |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities | 1.50 | 6 per month | 1.54 | (0.03) | 2.24 | (2.57) | 7.29 | |
| NIMC | NiSource Unit | 1.30 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.66 | (1.54) | 6.93 | |
| UGIC | UGI Corp Unit | (0.27) | 1 per month | 1.69 | 0.06 | 3.43 | (3.09) | 15.28 | |
| UGI | UGI Corporation | (0.64) | 7 per month | 1.65 | 0.06 | 2.63 | (2.81) | 17.74 | |
| SR | Spire Inc | 0.38 | 11 per month | 0.98 | (0.01) | 2.19 | (1.65) | 7.42 | |
| SPH | Suburban Propane Partners | (0.40) | 10 per month | 1.89 | 0.02 | 3.18 | (2.77) | 10.53 |
Atmos Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Atmos price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Atmos using various technical indicators. When you analyze Atmos charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Atmos Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Atmos Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Atmos Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Atmos Energy based on analysis of Atmos Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Atmos Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Atmos Energy's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0268 | 0.028 | 0.0322 | 0.0433 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.34 | 3.6 | 3.24 | 3.4 |
Story Coverage note for Atmos Energy
The number of cover stories for Atmos Energy depends on current market conditions and Atmos Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Atmos Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Atmos Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Atmos Energy Short Properties
Atmos Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Atmos Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Atmos Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Atmos Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Atmos Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 145.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.4 M |
Check out Atmos Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Atmos Stock, please use our How to Invest in Atmos Energy guide.You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Atmos Stock analysis
When running Atmos Energy's price analysis, check to measure Atmos Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Atmos Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Atmos Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Atmos Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Atmos Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Atmos Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Atmos Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Atmos Energy. If investors know Atmos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Atmos Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.087 | Dividend Share 3.025 | Earnings Share 6.26 | Revenue Per Share 26.848 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.22) |
The market value of Atmos Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Atmos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Atmos Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Atmos Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Atmos Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Atmos Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Atmos Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Atmos Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Atmos Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.