ASSOCIATED BRITISH Naive Prediction

<div class='circular--portrait' style='background:#754DEB;color: white;font-size:4em;padding-top: 15px;;'>AS</div>
ASBFY -- USA Stock  

USD 34.68  0.10  0.29%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast ASSOCIATED BRITISH historic prices and determine the direction of ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of ASSOCIATED BRITISH historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASSOCIATED BRITISH to cross-verify your projections.
Symbol
Refresh
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for ASSOCIATED BRITISH is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS on the next trading day is expected to be 35.235442

ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS Prediction Pattern

Backtest ASSOCIATED BRITISH | ASSOCIATED BRITISH Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice 

ASSOCIATED BRITISH Forecasted Value

Market Value
34.68
January 25, 2020
35.24
Expected Value
41.62
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria117.1159
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4764
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0144
SAESum of the absolute errors29.062
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

ASSOCIATED BRITISH Risk Indicators