We consider American Airlines not too volatile. American Airlines Group
secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0019 which signifies that American Airlines Group
had 0.0019% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 1 month. Our philosophy in foreseeing volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators
that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators
for American Airlines Group which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please confirm American Airlines Group Mean Deviation
of 1.29 and Risk Adjusted Performance
of 0.001627 to double-check if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.0033%. American Airlines has performance score of 0 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows Beta (market volatility) of 1.6535 which signifies that as market goes up, the company is expected to significantly outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, American Airlines will likely underperform.. Although it is extremely important to respect American Airlines Group historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current trending patterns. The philosophy in foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing American Airlines Group technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.0033% will be sustainable into the future. American Airlines Group right now shows a risk of 1.7261%. Please confirm American Airlines Group Downside Deviation, Treynor Ratio, Expected Short fall, as well as the relationship between Variance and Potential Upside to decide if American Airlines Group will be following its price patterns.
|15 days auto-correlation||(0.87) |
Excellent reverse predictability
American Airlines Group has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Airlines time series from July 20, 2018 to August 4, 2018 and August 4, 2018 to August 19, 2018. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Airlines Group price movement. The serial correlation of -0.87 indicates that approximately 87.0% of current American Airlines price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that American Airlines Group has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of American Airlines for similar time interval.
|Correlation Coefficient|| -0.87|
|Spearman Rank Test|| -0.23|
|Price Variance|| 0.27|
|Lagged Price Variance|| 0.66|