American Airlines Group Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

AAL Stock  USD 14.11  0.15  1.07%   
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your typical level of risk aversion, our recommendation regarding American Airlines Group is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides American Airlines buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AAL positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of American Airlines' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Osisko Gold Ro's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
14.67
Target Price
15.14
Hype Value
14.11
Market Value
14.11
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell American Airlines Group given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards American Airlines. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for American Airlines Group, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out American Airlines Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as American and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards American Airlines Group. Also, note that the market value of any Company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.

Execute American Airlines Buy or Sell Advice

The American recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on American Airlines Group. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in American Airlines Group or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute American Airlines' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell American AirlinesBuy American Airlines
Hold

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

Not too volatileDetails

Hype Condition

StaleDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Below AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Actively responds to the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

AlarmedDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

StrongDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon American Airlines Group has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0181, Jensen Alpha of (0.19), Total Risk Alpha of (0.56), Sortino Ratio of (0.04) and Treynor Ratio of 0.021
Our trade advice tool can cross-verify current analyst consensus on American Airlines and to analyze the company potential to grow in the current economic cycle. To make sure American Airlines is not overpriced, please confirm all American Airlines fundamentals, including its shares outstanding, revenue, total debt, as well as the relationship between the number of shares shorted and net income . Given that American Airlines has a price to sales of 0.17 X, we suggest you to validate American Airlines Group market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

American Airlines Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

The company has 40.66 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.53, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. American Airlines has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist American Airlines until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, American Airlines' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like American Airlines sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about American Airlines' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
American Airlines has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from news.google.com: Hudson Bay Capital Management LP Invests 5.12 Million in American Airlines Group Inc. - Defense World

American Airlines Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of American Airlines' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of American Airlines' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of American Airlines stock daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use American Airlines Group price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of American Airlines returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for American Airlines.
Mean Return
0.05
Value At Risk
-3.65
Potential Upside
4.49
Standard Deviation
2.80
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of American Airlines historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

American Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as American Airlines is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Airlines Group backward and forwards among themselves. American Airlines' institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase American Airlines' securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Renaissance Technologies Corp2023-12-31
5.4 M
Northern Trust Corp2023-09-30
4.7 M
Bank Of America Corp2023-09-30
3.7 M
Bank Of New York Mellon Corp2023-09-30
3.7 M
Squarepoint Ops Llc2023-09-30
3.7 M
Barclays Plc2023-09-30
3.3 M
Millennium Management Llc2023-09-30
3.1 M
Par Capital Management Inc2023-12-31
2.5 M
Man Group Plc2023-09-30
2.4 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-09-30
78.9 M
Primecap Management Company2023-12-31
37 M
Note, although American Airlines' institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

American Airlines Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change To Inventory(400M)88M(45M)(1.8B)(520M)(494M)
Change In Cash4M109M9M178M(679M)(645.1M)
Free Cash Flow(453M)(8.5B)496M(733M)1.2B1.3B
Depreciation2.3B2.4B2.3B2.3B2.3B1.3B
Other Non Cash Items24M1.2B(222M)242M90M85.5M
Dividends Paid178M43M12.2B3.5B4.1B4.3B
Capital Expenditures4.3B2.0B208M2.9B2.6B2.7B
Net Income1.7B(8.9B)(2.0B)127M822M863.1M
End Period Cash Flow290M399M408M586M1.5B1.6B
Investments960M(3.0B)(5.5B)636M(502M)(527.1M)
Net Borrowings(230M)8.2B4.8B(2.7B)(3.1B)(2.9B)
Change To Netincome678M(1.2B)362M65M58.5M71.4M

American Airlines Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to American Airlines or Passenger Airlines sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that American Airlines' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a American stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.19
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.70
σ
Overall volatility
2.88
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

American Airlines Volatility Alert

American Airlines Group currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of -0.03 and Jensen Alpha of -0.19. However, we advise investors to further question American Airlines Group expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure American Airlines' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact American Airlines' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

American Airlines Implied Volatility

American Airlines' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Airlines Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Airlines' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Airlines stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Airlines' options are near their expiration.

American Airlines Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing American Airlines' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze American Airlines' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between American Airlines and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as American Airlines or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of American Airlines' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Airlines by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare American Airlines to competition
FundamentalsAmerican AirlinesPeer Average
Return On Asset0.0396-0.14
Profit Margin0.02 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.05 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation42.23 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding654.76 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders1.80 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions52.94 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted37.81 M4.71 M
Price To Earning7.08 X28.72 X
Price To Sales0.17 X11.42 X
Revenue52.79 B9.43 B
Gross Profit11.44 B27.38 B
EBITDA6.26 B3.9 B
Net Income822 M570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents11.23 B2.7 B
Cash Per Share17.28 X5.01 X
Total Debt40.66 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity7.53 %48.70 %
Current Ratio0.79 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share(7.95) X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations3.8 B971.22 M
Short Ratio1.32 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share1.21 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth0.30 X4.89 X
Target Price17.53
Number Of Employees132.1 K18.84 K
Beta1.58-0.15
Market Capitalization9.24 B19.03 B
Total Asset63.06 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings(7.69 B)9.33 B
Working Capital(8.49 B)1.48 B
Current Asset9.98 B9.34 B
Current Liabilities13.61 B7.9 B
Note: Sale by Raja Vasu of 5121 shares of American Airlines [view details]

American Airlines Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as American . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About American Airlines Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell American Airlines Group? Buying financial instruments such as American Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total46.2B43.7B40.7B42.7B
Total Assets66.4B64.7B63.1B34.1B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having American Airlines in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Momentum Thematic Idea Now

Momentum
Momentum Theme
Large corporations operating in software, education, financial and car manufacturing industries. The Momentum theme has 40 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Momentum Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether American Airlines is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Airlines' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Airlines' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out American Airlines Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
Note that the American Airlines information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Airlines' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

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When running American Airlines' price analysis, check to measure American Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of American Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Airlines' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Airlines. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.97)
Earnings Share
1.21
Revenue Per Share
80.764
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
Return On Assets
0.0396
The market value of American Airlines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.