Heritage Commerce Corp Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| HTBK Stock | USD 8.44 0.23 2.80% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Heritage Commerce Corp is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Heritage Commerce buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding HTBK positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Heritage Commerce's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Heritage Commerce's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 8.33 | Target Price 11.08 | Hype Value 8.44 | Market Value 8.44 | Naive Value 8.52 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Heritage Commerce Corp given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Heritage Commerce. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Heritage Commerce Corp, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Heritage |
Execute Heritage Commerce Buy or Sell Advice
The Heritage recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Heritage Commerce Corp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Heritage Commerce Corp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Heritage Commerce's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unavailable | Details |
Heritage Commerce Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Over 77.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Four Days Left To Buy Heritage Commerce Corp Before The Ex-Dividend Date |
Heritage Commerce Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Heritage Commerce's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Heritage Commerce's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Heritage Commerce daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Heritage Commerce Corp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Heritage Commerce returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Heritage Commerce.
| Mean Return | -0.04 | Value At Risk | -2.97 | Potential Upside | 2.96 | Standard Deviation | 1.76 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Heritage Commerce historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Heritage Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Heritage Commerce is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Heritage Commerce Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Heritage Commerce's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Heritage Commerce's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Kennedy Capital Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 897.2 K | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 867.3 K | Stieven Capital Advisors, L.p. | 2023-12-31 | 833 K | Banc Funds Co Llc | 2023-12-31 | 683.6 K | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2023-12-31 | 666.6 K | Alti Global Inc | 2023-12-31 | 637 K | Tiedemann Wealth Management, Llc | 2023-09-30 | 637 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2023-12-31 | 632.1 K | Endeavour Capital Advisors Inc | 2023-12-31 | 591.1 K | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 8.4 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 3.2 M |
Heritage Commerce Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 292.8M | 673.7M | 175.1M | (999.6M) | 101.5M | 106.6M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 50.1M | 54.9M | 56.6M | 69.1M | 70.6M | 74.1M | |
| Depreciation | 3.6M | 4.7M | 4.1M | 3.8M | 3.5M | 2.1M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 373K | (1.5M) | (1.3M) | (2.5M) | 2.9M | 2.2M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 203K | 3.2M | 252K | 783K | 1.7M | 1.8M | |
| Net Income | 40.5M | 35.3M | 47.7M | 66.6M | 64.4M | 67.7M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 457.4M | 1.1B | 1.3B | 306.6M | 408.1M | 265.1M | |
| Dividends Paid | 22.7M | 31.1M | 31.3M | 31.5M | 31.7M | 33.3M | |
| Investments | 153.5M | 148.4M | (293.3M) | (483.9M) | 70.2M | 73.7M | |
| Change Receivables | 8.4M | 8.1M | 6.1M | 978K | 1.1M | 1.1M | |
| Net Borrowings | (10.1M) | (10.4M) | (328K) | (726K) | (834.9K) | (876.6K) | |
| Change To Netincome | 985K | 11.3M | (5.1M) | (1.1M) | (1.0M) | (968.7K) |
Heritage Commerce Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Heritage Commerce or Banks sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Heritage Commerce's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Heritage stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.37 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.73 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Heritage Commerce Volatility Alert
Heritage Commerce Corp exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.07 and kurtosis of 1.17. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Heritage Commerce's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Heritage Commerce's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Heritage Commerce Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Heritage Commerce's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Heritage Commerce's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Heritage Commerce and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Heritage Commerce or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Heritage Commerce's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Heritage Commerce by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Heritage Commerce to competition |
| Fundamentals | Heritage Commerce | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0842 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0103 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.31 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.34 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 523.98 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 61.25 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 3.97 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 76.64 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 758.74 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 19.19 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 0.72 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 2.53 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 9 K | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 189.22 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 90.42 K | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 64.44 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 876.59 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 14.45 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 71.18 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.05 % | 48.70 % |
| Book Value Per Share | 11.04 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 72.28 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.05 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 0.91 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.88 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 10.33 | |
| Number Of Employees | 351 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.89 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 516.98 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 5.19 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 179.09 M | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.06 % | |
| Five Year Return | 4.30 % |
Note: Disposition of 2470 shares by Sutton Marina Park of Heritage Commerce at 4.85 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Heritage Commerce Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Heritage . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Heritage Commerce Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Heritage Commerce Corp? Buying financial instruments such as Heritage Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Total Stockholder Equity | 598.0M | 632.5M | 672.9M | 706.5M | Total Assets | 5.5B | 5.2B | 5.2B | 5.5B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Heritage Commerce in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Utilities Thematic Idea Now
Utilities
Highly leveraged corporations that deliver utilities such as power, water or gas to public or business. The Utilities theme has 30 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Utilities Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Heritage Commerce Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Heritage Commerce Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Heritage Commerce's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Heritage Stock analysis
When running Heritage Commerce's price analysis, check to measure Heritage Commerce's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Heritage Commerce is operating at the current time. Most of Heritage Commerce's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Heritage Commerce's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Heritage Commerce's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Heritage Commerce to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators |
Is Heritage Commerce's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Heritage Commerce. If investors know Heritage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Heritage Commerce listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 0.91 | Revenue Per Share 2.969 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.19) |
The market value of Heritage Commerce Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Heritage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Heritage Commerce's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Heritage Commerce's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Heritage Commerce's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Heritage Commerce's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heritage Commerce's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Heritage Commerce is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heritage Commerce's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.