Archer Daniels Midland Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| ADM Stock | USD 59.17 0.18 0.30% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Archer Daniels Midland is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Archer Daniels buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding ADM positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Archer Daniels' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Archer Daniels' buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 68.4 | Target Price 96.62 | Hype Value 59.02 | Market Value 59.17 | Naive Value 60.33 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Archer Daniels Midland given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Archer Daniels. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Archer Daniels Midland, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Archer |
Execute Archer Daniels Buy or Sell Advice
The Archer recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Archer Daniels Midland. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Archer Daniels Midland or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Archer Daniels' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Good | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Archer Daniels Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Over 85.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
Archer Daniels Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Archer Daniels' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Archer Daniels' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Archer Daniels daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Archer Daniels Midland price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Archer Daniels returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Archer Daniels.
| Mean Return | 0.12 | Value At Risk | -2.36 | Potential Upside | 2.12 | Standard Deviation | 1.47 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Archer Daniels historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Archer Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Archer Daniels is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Archer Daniels Midland backward and forwards among themselves. Archer Daniels' institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Archer Daniels' securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 5.1 M | Macquarie Group Ltd | 2023-12-31 | 4.7 M | Legal & General Group Plc | 2023-12-31 | 4.6 M | Massachusetts Financial Services Company | 2023-12-31 | 4.5 M | Amvescap Plc. | 2023-12-31 | 4.3 M | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 4 M | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2023-12-31 | 3.8 M | Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 3.3 M | Moneta Group Investment Advisors Inc | 2023-12-31 | 3.2 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 60.5 M | State Farm Mutual Automobile Ins Co | 2023-12-31 | 46.8 M |
Archer Daniels Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (21M) | (2.4B) | (2.8B) | (295M) | 2.9B | 3.0B | |
| Change In Cash | (853M) | 1.7B | 2.8B | (421M) | (1.6B) | (1.6B) | |
| Free Cash Flow | (6.3B) | (3.2B) | 5.4B | 2.2B | 3.0B | 3.1B | |
| Depreciation | 993M | 976M | 996M | 1.0B | 1.1B | 745.3M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (196M) | 145M | 178M | (184M) | 96M | 100.8M | |
| Dividends Paid | 789M | 809M | 834M | 899M | 977M | 1.0B | |
| Capital Expenditures | 828M | 823M | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.5B | 943.5M | |
| Net Income | 1.4B | 1.8B | 2.7B | 4.4B | 3.5B | 3.7B | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 3.0B | 4.6B | 7.5B | 7.0B | 5.4B | 5.7B | |
| Investments | 7.7B | 4.6B | (33M) | (1.4B) | (1.5B) | (1.4B) | |
| Change Receivables | 287M | (149M) | (578M) | (1.7B) | (1.5B) | (1.4B) | |
| Net Borrowings | 301M | 492M | (290M) | (158M) | (181.7M) | (172.6M) | |
| Change To Netincome | (109M) | 278M | 236M | (184M) | (165.6M) | (157.3M) |
Archer Daniels Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Archer Daniels or Food Products sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Archer Daniels' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Archer stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Archer Daniels Volatility Alert
Archer Daniels Midland has relatively low volatility with skewness of -0.56 and kurtosis of 1.56. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Archer Daniels' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Archer Daniels' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Archer Daniels Implied Volatility
Archer Daniels' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Archer Daniels Midland stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Archer Daniels' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Archer Daniels stock will not fluctuate a lot when Archer Daniels' options are near their expiration.
Archer Daniels Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Archer Daniels' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Archer Daniels' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Archer Daniels and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Archer Daniels or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Archer Daniels' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Archer Daniels by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Archer Daniels to competition |
| Fundamentals | Archer Daniels | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.12 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0386 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.03 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.03 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 40.03 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 494.44 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.59 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 85.01 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 8.83 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 13.30 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.27 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.33 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 93.97 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 7.57 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 3.94 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 3.48 B | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.04 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 2.19 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 9.6 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.40 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.51 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 46.25 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 4.46 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.87 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 5.73 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 16.43 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 63.18 | |
| Number Of Employees | 40.21 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.77 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 29.26 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 54.63 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 26.16 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 11.11 B | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by Gregory Morris of 21851 shares of Archer Daniels subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Archer Daniels Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Archer . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Archer Daniels Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Archer Daniels Midland? Buying financial instruments such as Archer Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 10.6B | 10.3B | 9.6B | 6.1B | Total Assets | 56.1B | 59.8B | 54.6B | 28.0B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Archer Daniels in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Trading theme has 61 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Trading Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Archer Daniels Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Archer Daniels Midland information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Archer Daniels' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
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When running Archer Daniels' price analysis, check to measure Archer Daniels' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Archer Daniels is operating at the current time. Most of Archer Daniels' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Archer Daniels' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Archer Daniels' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Archer Daniels to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Archer Daniels' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Archer Daniels. If investors know Archer will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Archer Daniels listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | Dividend Share 1.85 | Earnings Share 5.73 | Revenue Per Share 172.468 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
The market value of Archer Daniels Midland is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Archer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Archer Daniels' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Archer Daniels' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Archer Daniels' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Archer Daniels' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Archer Daniels' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Archer Daniels is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Archer Daniels' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.