Yum Brands Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 141.56
| YUM Stock | USD 136.18 1.84 1.37% |
Closest to current price Yum long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Yum |
Yum Brands Target Price Odds to finish over 141.56
The tendency of Yum Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 141.56 or more in 90 days |
| 136.18 | 90 days | 141.56 | about 8.6 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Yum Brands to move over $ 141.56 or more in 90 days from now is about 8.6 (This Yum Brands probability density function shows the probability of Yum Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Yum Brands price to stay between its current price of $ 136.18 and $ 141.56 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.35 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Yum Brands has a beta of 0.65. This entails as returns on the market go up, Yum Brands average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Yum Brands will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Yum Brands has an alpha of 0.0182, implying that it can generate a 0.0182 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Yum Brands Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Yum Brands
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Yum Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Yum Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Yum Brands Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Yum Brands is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Yum Brands' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Yum Brands, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Yum Brands within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0046 |
Yum Brands Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Yum Brands for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Yum Brands can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 86.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Director Paget Alves Sells Shares of Yum Brands Inc |
Yum Brands Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Yum Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Yum Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Yum Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 285 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 512 M |
Yum Brands Technical Analysis
Yum Brands' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Yum Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Yum Brands. In general, you should focus on analyzing Yum Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Yum Brands Predictive Forecast Models
Yum Brands' time-series forecasting models is one of many Yum Brands' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Yum Brands' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Yum Brands
Checking the ongoing alerts about Yum Brands for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Yum Brands help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 86.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Director Paget Alves Sells Shares of Yum Brands Inc |
Check out Yum Brands Backtesting, Yum Brands Valuation, Yum Brands Correlation, Yum Brands Hype Analysis, Yum Brands Volatility, Yum Brands History as well as Yum Brands Performance. To learn how to invest in Yum Stock, please use our How to Invest in Yum Brands guide.You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Complementary Tools for Yum Stock analysis
When running Yum Brands' price analysis, check to measure Yum Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Yum Brands is operating at the current time. Most of Yum Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Yum Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Yum Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Yum Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Yum Brands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Yum Brands. If investors know Yum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Yum Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.048 | Dividend Share 2.485 | Earnings Share 5.64 | Revenue Per Share 24.992 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of Yum Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Yum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Yum Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Yum Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Yum Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Yum Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Yum Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Yum Brands is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Yum Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.