Valero Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 168.28
| VLO Stock | USD 165.80 1.33 0.80% |
Closest to current price Valero long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Valero |
Valero Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 168.28
The tendency of Valero Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 168.28 after 90 days |
| 165.80 | 90 days | 168.28 | about 79.84 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Valero Energy to stay under $ 168.28 after 90 days from now is about 79.84 (This Valero Energy probability density function shows the probability of Valero Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Valero Energy price to stay between its current price of $ 165.80 and $ 168.28 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.77 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Valero Energy has a beta of 0.83. This entails as returns on the market go up, Valero Energy average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Valero Energy will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Valero Energy has an alpha of 0.3165, implying that it can generate a 0.32 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Valero Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Valero Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valero Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Valero Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Valero Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Valero Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Valero Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Valero Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Valero Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.32 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.83 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 15.52 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
Valero Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Valero Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Valero Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 81.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 4th of March 2024 Valero Energy paid $ 1.07 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from investorplace.com: VLO Stock Earnings Valero Energy Beats EPS, Misses Revenue for Q1 2024 |
Valero Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Valero Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Valero Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valero Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 353 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.5 B |
Valero Energy Technical Analysis
Valero Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Valero Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Valero Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Valero Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Valero Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Valero Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Valero Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Valero Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Valero Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Valero Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Valero Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 81.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 4th of March 2024 Valero Energy paid $ 1.07 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from investorplace.com: VLO Stock Earnings Valero Energy Beats EPS, Misses Revenue for Q1 2024 |
Check out Valero Energy Backtesting, Valero Energy Valuation, Valero Energy Correlation, Valero Energy Hype Analysis, Valero Energy Volatility, Valero Energy History as well as Valero Energy Performance. To learn how to invest in Valero Stock, please use our How to Invest in Valero Energy guide.You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Complementary Tools for Valero Stock analysis
When running Valero Energy's price analysis, check to measure Valero Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valero Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Valero Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valero Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valero Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valero Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Valero Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valero Energy. If investors know Valero will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Valero Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | Dividend Share 4.13 | Earnings Share 20.38 | Revenue Per Share 391.036 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
The market value of Valero Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valero that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valero Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valero Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Valero Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valero Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valero Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valero Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Valero Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.