Valero Energy Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

VLO Stock  USD 167.81  0.56  0.33%   
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Valero Energy is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Valero Energy buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding VLO positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Valero Energy's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Valero Energy's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
168.29
Target Price
150.47
Hype Value
168.23
Market Value
167.81
Naive Value
166.26
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Valero Energy given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Valero Energy. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Valero Energy, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Valero Energy Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
To learn how to invest in Valero Stock, please use our How to Invest in Valero Energy guide.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Valero and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Valero Energy. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of economic analysis.

Execute Valero Energy Buy or Sell Advice

The Valero recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Valero Energy. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Valero Energy or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Valero Energy's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Valero EnergyBuy Valero Energy
Strong Buy

Market Performance

SolidDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Very LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Follows the market closelyDetails

Investor Sentiment

InterestedDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Possible ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Valero Energy has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1385, Jensen Alpha of 0.282, Total Risk Alpha of 0.0125, Sortino Ratio of 0.172 and Treynor Ratio of 0.4823
Macroaxis provides recommendation on Valero Energy to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Valero Energy. Our trade recommendation engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Valero Energy is not overpriced, please validate all Valero Energy fundamentals, including its revenue, earnings per share, annual yield, as well as the relationship between the total debt and total asset . Given that Valero Energy has a price to book of 2.11 X, we advise you to double-check Valero Energy market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your current risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Valero Energy Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Over 81.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
On 4th of March 2024 Valero Energy paid $ 1.07 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Global Fuel Ethanol Market Poised for Robust Growth, Forecasts Indicate a Surge to 141.05 Billion by 2028

Valero Energy Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Valero Energy's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Valero Energy's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Valero Energy daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Valero Energy price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Valero Energy returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Valero Energy.
Mean Return
0.39
Value At Risk
-2.31
Potential Upside
2.74
Standard Deviation
1.64
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Valero Energy historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Valero Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Valero Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Valero Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Valero Energy's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Valero Energy's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Nuveen Asset Management, Llc2023-12-31
3.9 M
Bank Of New York Mellon Corp2023-12-31
3.8 M
Goldman Sachs Group Inc2023-12-31
3.7 M
Northern Trust Corp2023-12-31
3.6 M
Putnam Investments Llc2023-12-31
3.4 M
Amvescap Plc.2023-12-31
3.2 M
Amundi2023-12-31
M
Legal & General Group Plc2023-12-31
2.9 M
Pacer Advisors, Inc.2023-12-31
2.8 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
32.1 M
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
28.5 M
Note, although Valero Energy's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Valero Energy Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash(399M)730M809M740M562M590.1M
Free Cash Flow(1.7B)(770M)(1.2B)(1.0B)7.3B7.7B
Depreciation2.3B2.4B2.4B2.5B2.7B2.8B
Other Non Cash Items780M675M762M(13.5B)7.0B7.3B
Dividends Paid1.5B1.6B1.6B1.6B(1.5B)(1.4B)
Capital Expenditures2.0B1.8B1.7B1.7B1.9B1.4B
Net Income2.8B(1.1B)1.3B11.9B8.8B9.2B
End Period Cash Flow2.6B3.3B4.1B4.9B5.4B5.7B
Change To Inventory(385M)1.0B(253M)(672M)(684M)(649.8M)
Change To Netincome234M139M5M97M87.3M121.4M
Net Borrowings320M4.1B(1.4B)(2.9B)(2.6B)(2.5B)
Investments(164M)(54M)261M31M(2.1B)(2.0B)

Valero Energy Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Valero Energy or Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Valero Energy's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Valero stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.28
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.79
σ
Overall volatility
1.68
Ir
Information ratio 0.16

Valero Energy Volatility Alert

Valero Energy has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.21 and kurtosis of 0.16. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Valero Energy's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Valero Energy's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Valero Energy Implied Volatility

Valero Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Valero Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Valero Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Valero Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Valero Energy's options are near their expiration.

Valero Energy Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Valero Energy's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Valero Energy's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Valero Energy and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Valero Energy or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Valero Energy's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Valero Energy by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Valero Energy to competition
FundamentalsValero EnergyPeer Average
Return On Equity0.34-0.31
Return On Asset0.12-0.14
Profit Margin0.06 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.05 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation62.82 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding332.48 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders0.48 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions80.68 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted10.52 M4.71 M
Price To Earning6.38 X28.72 X
Price To Book2.11 X9.51 X
Price To Sales0.40 X11.42 X
Revenue144.8 B9.43 B
Gross Profit19.22 B27.38 B
EBITDA14.84 B3.9 B
Net Income8.81 B570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents4.86 B2.7 B
Cash Per Share13.69 X5.01 X
Total Debt12.64 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity0.57 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.25 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share79.05 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations9.23 B971.22 M
Short Ratio2.89 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share24.92 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth0.21 X4.89 X
Target Price160.4
Number Of Employees9.89 K18.84 K
Beta1.52-0.15
Market Capitalization55.61 B19.03 B
Total Asset64.48 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings45.63 B9.33 B
Working Capital9.42 B1.48 B

Valero Energy Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Valero . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Valero Energy Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Valero Energy? Buying financial instruments such as Valero Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total1.9B3.6B12.6B13.3B
Total Assets57.9B61.0B64.5B67.7B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Valero Energy in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

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Online Gaming
Online Gaming Theme
Companies that are involved in the building and marketing of online gaming-related products. The Online Gaming theme has 48 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Online Gaming Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Valero Energy offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Valero Energy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Valero Energy Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Valero Energy Stock:
Check out Valero Energy Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
To learn how to invest in Valero Stock, please use our How to Invest in Valero Energy guide.
You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

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Is Valero Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valero Energy. If investors know Valero will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Valero Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.57)
Dividend Share
4.08
Earnings Share
24.92
Revenue Per Share
393.771
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.16)
The market value of Valero Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valero that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valero Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valero Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Valero Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valero Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valero Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valero Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Valero Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.