Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Over 300.90
| VCR Etf | USD 300.90 7.19 2.33% |
Closest to current price Vanguard long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Vanguard |
Vanguard Consumer Target Price Odds to finish over 300.90
The tendency of Vanguard Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 300.90 | 90 days | 300.90 | about 79.27 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard Consumer to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 79.27 (This Vanguard Consumer Discretionary probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the etf has the beta coefficient of 1.37 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Vanguard Consumer will likely underperform. Additionally Vanguard Consumer Discretionary has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Vanguard Consumer Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vanguard Consumer
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Consumer. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Consumer's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Consumer Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard Consumer is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard Consumer's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard Consumer Discretionary, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard Consumer within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.37 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.90 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Vanguard Consumer Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vanguard Consumer for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vanguard Consumer can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Latest headline from zacks.com: Should You Invest in the iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF | |
| The fund generated three year return of 0.0% | |
| Vanguard Consumer keeps 99.18% of its net assets in stocks |
Vanguard Consumer Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vanguard Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vanguard Consumer's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vanguard Consumer's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Vanguard Consumer Technical Analysis
Vanguard Consumer's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vanguard Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vanguard Consumer Discretionary. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vanguard Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vanguard Consumer Predictive Forecast Models
Vanguard Consumer's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vanguard Consumer's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vanguard Consumer's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vanguard Consumer
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vanguard Consumer for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vanguard Consumer help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Should You Invest in the iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF | |
| The fund generated three year return of 0.0% | |
| Vanguard Consumer keeps 99.18% of its net assets in stocks |
Check out Vanguard Consumer Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard Consumer Correlation, Vanguard Consumer Hype Analysis, Vanguard Consumer Volatility, Vanguard Consumer History as well as Vanguard Consumer Performance. Note that the Vanguard Consumer information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Vanguard Consumer's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
The market value of Vanguard Consumer is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vanguard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vanguard Consumer's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vanguard Consumer's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vanguard Consumer's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vanguard Consumer's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vanguard Consumer's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vanguard Consumer is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vanguard Consumer's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.