Old Republic International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 29.80
| ORI Stock | USD 29.80 0.33 1.10% |
Closest to current price Old long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Old |
Old Republic Target Price Odds to finish over 29.80
The tendency of Old Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 29.80 | 90 days | 29.80 | about 24.64 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Republic to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 24.64 (This Old Republic International probability density function shows the probability of Old Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Old Republic has a beta of 0.55. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Old Republic average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Old Republic International will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Old Republic International has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Old Republic Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Old Republic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Old Republic Interna. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Old Republic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Old Republic Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Old Republic is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Old Republic's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Old Republic International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Old Republic within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.55 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Old Republic Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Old Republic for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Old Republic Interna can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company has 1.59 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.28, which may show that the company is not taking advantage of profits from borrowing. Old Republic Interna has a current ratio of 0.56, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Old Republic until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Old Republic's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Old Republic Interna sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Old to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Old Republic's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 74.0% of Old Republic shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 21st of March 2024 Old Republic paid $ 0.265 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Old Republic International First Quarter 2024 Earnings Beats Expectations |
Old Republic Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Old Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Old Republic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Old Republic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 285.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.8 B |
Old Republic Technical Analysis
Old Republic's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Old Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Old Republic International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Old Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Old Republic Predictive Forecast Models
Old Republic's time-series forecasting models is one of many Old Republic's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Old Republic's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Old Republic Interna
Checking the ongoing alerts about Old Republic for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Old Republic Interna help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company has 1.59 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.28, which may show that the company is not taking advantage of profits from borrowing. Old Republic Interna has a current ratio of 0.56, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Old Republic until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Old Republic's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Old Republic Interna sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Old to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Old Republic's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 74.0% of Old Republic shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 21st of March 2024 Old Republic paid $ 0.265 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Old Republic International First Quarter 2024 Earnings Beats Expectations |
Check out Old Republic Backtesting, Old Republic Valuation, Old Republic Correlation, Old Republic Hype Analysis, Old Republic Volatility, Old Republic History as well as Old Republic Performance. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
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When running Old Republic's price analysis, check to measure Old Republic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Old Republic is operating at the current time. Most of Old Republic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Old Republic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Old Republic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Old Republic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Old Republic's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Old Republic. If investors know Old will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Old Republic listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 2.1 | Revenue Per Share 23.687 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.146 |
The market value of Old Republic Interna is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Old that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Old Republic's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Old Republic's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Old Republic's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Old Republic's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Old Republic's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Old Republic is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Old Republic's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.