Great West Lifetime 2040 Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 10.51
| MXBDX Fund | USD 10.51 0.04 0.38% |
Great |
Great West Target Price Odds to finish over 10.51
The tendency of Great Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 10.51 | 90 days | 10.51 | about 60.38 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Great West to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 60.38 (This Great West Lifetime 2040 probability density function shows the probability of Great Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Great West has a beta of 0.68. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Great West average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Great West Lifetime 2040 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Great West Lifetime 2040 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Great West Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Great West
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Great West Lifetime. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Great West's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Great West Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Great West is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Great West's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Great West Lifetime 2040, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Great West within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Great West Technical Analysis
Great West's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Great Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Great West Lifetime 2040. In general, you should focus on analyzing Great Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Great West Predictive Forecast Models
Great West's time-series forecasting models is one of many Great West's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Great West's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Great West in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Great West's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Great West options trading.
Check out Great West Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Great West Correlation, Great West Hype Analysis, Great West Volatility, Great West History as well as Great West Performance. Note that the Great West Lifetime information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Great West's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.