Cf Industries Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 86.32
CF Stock | USD 74.09 0.22 0.30% |
Closest to current price CF Industries long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
CF Industries |
CF Industries Target Price Odds to finish over 86.32
The tendency of CF Industries Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 86.32 or more in 90 days |
74.09 | 90 days | 86.32 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CF Industries to move over $ 86.32 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This CF Industries Holdings probability density function shows the probability of CF Industries Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CF Industries Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 74.09 and $ 86.32 at the end of the 90-day period is more than 94.0 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon CF Industries has a beta of 0.72 suggesting as returns on the market go up, CF Industries average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CF Industries Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally CF Industries Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. CF Industries Price Density |
Price |
Predictive Modules for CF Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CF Industries Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CF Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CF Industries Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CF Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CF Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CF Industries Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CF Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.72 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
CF Industries Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CF Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CF Industries Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.CF Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
CF Industries Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CF Industries Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CF Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CF Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 193.8 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
CF Industries Technical Analysis
CF Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CF Industries Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CF Industries Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing CF Industries Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CF Industries Predictive Forecast Models
CF Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many CF Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CF Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CF Industries Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about CF Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CF Industries Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CF Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
Check out CF Industries Backtesting, CF Industries Valuation, CF Industries Correlation, CF Industries Hype Analysis, CF Industries Volatility, CF Industries History as well as CF Industries Performance. Note that the CF Industries Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CF Industries' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Complementary Tools for CF Industries Stock analysis
When running CF Industries' price analysis, check to measure CF Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CF Industries is operating at the current time. Most of CF Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CF Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CF Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CF Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CF Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CF Industries. If investors know CF Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CF Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.64) | Dividend Share 1.7 | Earnings Share 6.05 | Revenue Per Share 31.855 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.27) |
The market value of CF Industries Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CF Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CF Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CF Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CF Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CF Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CF Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CF Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CF Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.