Cf Industries Holdings Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

CF Stock  USD 82.61  0.80  0.98%   
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon and your slightly conservative level of risk, our recommendation regarding CF Industries Holdings is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides CF Industries buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding CF positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of CF Industries' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting CF Industries' buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
85.48
Target Price
89.44
Hype Value
82.69
Market Value
82.61
Naive Value
80.37
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell CF Industries Holdings given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards CF Industries. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for CF Industries Holdings, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out CF Industries Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as CF Industries and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards CF Industries Holdings. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census.

Execute CF Industries Buy or Sell Advice

The CF Industries recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on CF Industries Holdings. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in CF Industries Holdings or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute CF Industries' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell CF IndustriesBuy CF Industries
Hold

Market Performance

InsignificantDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds Of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Almost mirrors the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

AlarmedDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon CF Industries Holdings has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.035, Jensen Alpha of (0.07), Total Risk Alpha of (0.24), Sortino Ratio of (0.05) and Treynor Ratio of 0.0579
Macroaxis provides trade advice on CF Industries Holdings to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on CF Industries. Our advice engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure CF Industries Holdings is not overpriced, please confirm all CF Industries Holdings fundamentals, including its profit margin, shares owned by insiders, price to book, as well as the relationship between the current valuation and number of shares shorted . Given that CF Industries Holdings has a price to book of 2.71 X, we suggest you to validate CF Industries market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself this quarter and beyond given your latest risk tolerance and investing horizon.

CF Industries Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 29th of February 2024 CF Industries paid $ 0.5 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Ammonia Market Surges Robust Growth of 234 MMT, With 1-2 percent CAGR to 2025 Says Procurement Intelligence Report ELINT Market Research

CF Industries Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of CF Industries' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of CF Industries' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of CF Industries daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use CF Industries Holdings price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of CF Industries returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for CF Industries.
Mean Return
0.07
Value At Risk
-2.34
Potential Upside
2.59
Standard Deviation
1.35
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of CF Industries historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

CF Industries Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as CF Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CF Industries Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. CF Industries' institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase CF Industries' securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Goldman Sachs Group Inc2023-12-31
3.1 M
Pacer Advisors, Inc.2023-12-31
3.1 M
First Trust Advisors L.p.2023-12-31
2.9 M
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.2023-12-31
2.9 M
Menora Mivtachim Holdings Limited2023-12-31
2.5 M
Norges Bank2023-12-31
2.4 M
Bank Of America Corp2023-12-31
2.3 M
Boston Partners Global Investors, Inc2023-12-31
2.2 M
William Blair Investment Management, Llc2023-12-31
2.2 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
24.1 M
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
19.3 M
Note, although CF Industries' institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

CF Industries Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash(395M)396M945M695M(291M)(276.5M)
Free Cash Flow1.1B922M2.3B3.4B1.0B787.6M
Other Non Cash Items(81M)(56M)443M34M283M297.2M
Capital Expenditures404M309M524M462M1.7B1.8B
Net Income646M432M1.3B3.9B1.5B937.5M
End Period Cash Flow287M683M1.6B2.3B2.0B1.0B
Change To Inventory(26M)27M(123M)(93M)152M159.6M
Depreciation888M875M892M850M869M545.8M
Dividends Paid265M258M260M306M(311M)(295.5M)
Change To Netincome76M101M691M(52M)(59.8M)(56.8M)
Investments(319M)6M(1M)(440M)(403M)(423.2M)
Change Receivables(6M)19M(235M)(110M)(99M)(94.1M)
Net Borrowings1M(772M)(518M)(511M)(459.9M)(436.9M)

CF Industries Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to CF Industries or Chemicals sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that CF Industries' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a CF Industries stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.07
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.05
σ
Overall volatility
1.40
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

CF Industries Volatility Alert

CF Industries Holdings has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.03 and kurtosis of 0.02. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure CF Industries' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact CF Industries' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

CF Industries Implied Volatility

CF Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of CF Industries Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if CF Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that CF Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when CF Industries' options are near their expiration.

CF Industries Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing CF Industries' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze CF Industries' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between CF Industries and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as CF Industries or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of CF Industries' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CF Industries by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare CF Industries to competition
FundamentalsCF IndustriesPeer Average
Return On Equity0.23-0.31
Return On Asset0.1-0.14
Profit Margin0.23 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.26 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation16.71 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding187.73 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders0.53 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions95.96 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted4.51 M4.71 M
Price To Earning72.32 X28.72 X
Price To Book2.71 X9.51 X
Price To Sales2.34 X11.42 X
Revenue6.63 B9.43 B
Gross Profit5.86 B27.38 B
EBITDA3.09 B3.9 B
Net Income1.52 B570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents2.32 B2.7 B
Cash Per Share11.89 X5.01 X
Total Debt3.23 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity0.42 %48.70 %
Current Ratio3.41 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share30.38 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations2.75 B971.22 M
Short Ratio2.05 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share7.87 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth0.64 X4.89 X
Target Price85.95
Number Of Employees2.7 K18.84 K
Beta1.02-0.15
Market Capitalization15.51 B19.03 B
Total Asset14.38 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings4.54 B9.33 B
Working Capital2.25 B1.48 B
Note: Disposition of 6000 shares by Bert Frost of CF Industries at 85.0027 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

CF Industries Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as CF Industries . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About CF Industries Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell CF Industries Holdings? Buying financial instruments such as CF Industries Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Total Stockholder Equity3.2B5.1B5.7B3.3B
Total Assets12.4B13.3B14.4B9.1B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having CF Industries in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Emerging Markets Funds
Emerging Markets Funds Theme
Fund or Etfs that invest in markets of developing countries. The Emerging Markets Funds theme has 45 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Emerging Markets Funds Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether CF Industries Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze CF Industries' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact CF Industries' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding CF Industries Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out CF Industries Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
Note that the CF Industries Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CF Industries' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

Complementary Tools for CF Industries Stock analysis

When running CF Industries' price analysis, check to measure CF Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CF Industries is operating at the current time. Most of CF Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CF Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CF Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CF Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Analyst Advice
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Is CF Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CF Industries. If investors know CF Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CF Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.67)
Dividend Share
1.6
Earnings Share
7.87
Revenue Per Share
34.304
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.40)
The market value of CF Industries Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CF Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CF Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CF Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CF Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CF Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CF Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CF Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CF Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.