Alerus Financial Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 19.38
| ALRS Stock | USD 19.79 0.09 0.46% |
Closest to current price Alerus long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Alerus |
Alerus Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 19.38
The tendency of Alerus Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 19.38 in 90 days |
| 19.79 | 90 days | 19.38 | about 99.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alerus Financial to stay above $ 19.38 in 90 days from now is about 99.0 (This Alerus Financial Corp probability density function shows the probability of Alerus Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alerus Financial Corp price to stay between $ 19.38 and its current price of $19.79 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.59 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Alerus Financial Corp has a beta of -0.39. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Alerus Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Alerus Financial Corp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Alerus Financial Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Alerus Financial Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Alerus Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alerus Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alerus Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alerus Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alerus Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alerus Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alerus Financial Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alerus Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.94 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Alerus Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alerus Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alerus Financial Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alerus Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| On 12th of April 2024 Alerus Financial paid $ 0.19 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Alerus Financial First Quarter 2024 Earnings In Line With Expectations |
Alerus Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alerus Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alerus Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alerus Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | -122.5 M |
Alerus Financial Technical Analysis
Alerus Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alerus Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alerus Financial Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alerus Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alerus Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Alerus Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alerus Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alerus Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alerus Financial Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alerus Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alerus Financial Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alerus Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| On 12th of April 2024 Alerus Financial paid $ 0.19 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Alerus Financial First Quarter 2024 Earnings In Line With Expectations |
Check out Alerus Financial Backtesting, Alerus Financial Valuation, Alerus Financial Correlation, Alerus Financial Hype Analysis, Alerus Financial Volatility, Alerus Financial History as well as Alerus Financial Performance. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Complementary Tools for Alerus Stock analysis
When running Alerus Financial's price analysis, check to measure Alerus Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alerus Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Alerus Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alerus Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alerus Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alerus Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alerus Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alerus Financial. If investors know Alerus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alerus Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | Dividend Share 0.76 | Earnings Share 0.5 | Revenue Per Share 8.322 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
The market value of Alerus Financial Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alerus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alerus Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alerus Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alerus Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alerus Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alerus Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alerus Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alerus Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.