Alerus Financial Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average
| ALRS Stock | USD 19.79 0.09 0.46% |
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Alerus Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 20.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.05. Alerus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alerus Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Alerus Financial Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alerus Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Alerus Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Alerus Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alerus Financial fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alerus Financial to cross-verify your projections. Alerus |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Alerus Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alerus Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Alerus Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Alerus Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alerus Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alerus Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alerus Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alerus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Alerus Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alerus Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alerus Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Alerus Financial is based on an artificially constructed time series of Alerus Financial daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Alerus Financial 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 4th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Alerus Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 20.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alerus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alerus Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alerus Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alerus Financial | Alerus Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alerus Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alerus Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alerus Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.36 and 22.17, respectively. We have considered Alerus Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alerus Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alerus Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 102.1364 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1826 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4537 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0218 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.0463 |
Predictive Modules for Alerus Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alerus Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alerus Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Alerus Financial
For every potential investor in Alerus, whether a beginner or expert, Alerus Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alerus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alerus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alerus Financial's price trends.Alerus Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alerus Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alerus Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alerus Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alerus Financial Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alerus Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alerus Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alerus Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alerus Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alerus Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alerus Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alerus Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alerus Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alerus Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alerus Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alerus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Variance | 4.52 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alerus Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alerus Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alerus Financial options trading.
Pair Trading with Alerus Financial
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alerus Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alerus Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Alerus Stock
| 0.69 | AC | Associated Capital | PairCorr |
Moving against Alerus Stock
| 0.71 | LU | Lufax Holding Financial Report 27th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | DB | Deutsche Bank AG | PairCorr |
| 0.61 | GS | Goldman Sachs Group Financial Report 17th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.47 | DIST | Distoken Acquisition | PairCorr |
| 0.45 | MS | Morgan Stanley Financial Report 16th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alerus Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alerus Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alerus Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Alerus Financial Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Alerus Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alerus Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alerus Financial Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alerus Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alerus Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Alerus Stock analysis
When running Alerus Financial's price analysis, check to measure Alerus Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alerus Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Alerus Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alerus Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alerus Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alerus Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alerus Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alerus Financial. If investors know Alerus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alerus Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | Dividend Share 0.76 | Earnings Share 0.5 | Revenue Per Share 8.322 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
The market value of Alerus Financial Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alerus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alerus Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alerus Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alerus Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alerus Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alerus Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alerus Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alerus Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.