Alibaba Group (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 70.60
| AHLA Stock | EUR 70.60 0.70 1.00% |
Alibaba |
Alibaba Group Target Price Odds to finish over 70.60
The tendency of Alibaba Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 70.60 | 90 days | 70.60 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alibaba Group to move above the current price in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Alibaba Group Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Alibaba Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alibaba Group Holdings has a beta of -0.0742. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Alibaba Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Alibaba Group Holdings is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Alibaba Group Holdings has an alpha of 0.0504, implying that it can generate a 0.0504 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alibaba Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alibaba Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alibaba Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alibaba Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alibaba Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alibaba Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alibaba Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alibaba Group Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alibaba Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Alibaba Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alibaba Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alibaba Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alibaba Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21.4 B |
Alibaba Group Technical Analysis
Alibaba Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alibaba Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alibaba Group Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alibaba Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alibaba Group Predictive Forecast Models
Alibaba Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alibaba Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alibaba Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alibaba Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alibaba Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alibaba Group options trading.
Check out Alibaba Group Backtesting, Alibaba Group Valuation, Alibaba Group Correlation, Alibaba Group Hype Analysis, Alibaba Group Volatility, Alibaba Group History as well as Alibaba Group Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Complementary Tools for Alibaba Stock analysis
When running Alibaba Group's price analysis, check to measure Alibaba Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alibaba Group is operating at the current time. Most of Alibaba Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alibaba Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alibaba Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alibaba Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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