Valley National Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average
| VLY Stock | USD 7.38 0.08 1.10% |
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Valley National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 7.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.27. Valley Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Valley National stock prices and determine the direction of Valley National Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Valley National's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Valley National's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Valley National's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Valley National fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valley National to cross-verify your projections. Valley |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Valley Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Valley National's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Valley National's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Valley National stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Valley National's open interest, investors have to compare it to Valley National's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Valley National is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Valley. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Valley National cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Valley National's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Valley National's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Valley National is based on an artificially constructed time series of Valley National daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Valley National 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Valley National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 7.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Valley Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Valley National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Valley National Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Valley National | Valley National Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Valley National Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Valley National's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Valley National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.27 and 10.64, respectively. We have considered Valley National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valley National stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valley National stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 100.8224 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0836 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2315 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0304 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.27 |
Predictive Modules for Valley National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valley National Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Valley National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Valley National
For every potential investor in Valley, whether a beginner or expert, Valley National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Valley Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Valley. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Valley National's price trends.Valley National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Valley National stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Valley National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Valley National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Valley National Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Valley National's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Valley National's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Valley National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Valley National stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Valley National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Valley National stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Valley National Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.38 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.08 |
Valley National Risk Indicators
The analysis of Valley National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valley National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting valley stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.33 | |||
| Variance | 11.06 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Valley National Investors Sentiment
The influence of Valley National's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Valley. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Valley National's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Valley. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Valley can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Valley National Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Valley National's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Valley National's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Valley National's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Valley National.
Valley National Implied Volatility | 57.32 |
Valley National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Valley National Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Valley National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Valley National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Valley National's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Valley National in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Valley National's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Valley National options trading.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| CRM | Salesforce | |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Class C |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valley National to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Complementary Tools for Valley Stock analysis
When running Valley National's price analysis, check to measure Valley National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valley National is operating at the current time. Most of Valley National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valley National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valley National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valley National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Center All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios | |
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account | |
| Portfolio Analyzer Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine | |
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| Pattern Recognition Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges | |
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Share Portfolio Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios | |
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios |
Is Valley National's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valley National. If investors know Valley will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Valley National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.36) | Dividend Share 0.44 | Earnings Share 0.85 | Revenue Per Share 3.457 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.14) |
The market value of Valley National Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valley that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valley National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valley National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Valley National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valley National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valley National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valley National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Valley National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.