Universal Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| UVV Stock | USD 53.39 0.55 1.04% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Universal on the next trading day is expected to be 50.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.23. Universal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Universal stock prices and determine the direction of Universal's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Universal's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Universal's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Universal's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Universal fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal to cross-verify your projections. Universal |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Universal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Universal's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Universal's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Universal stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Universal's open interest, investors have to compare it to Universal's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Universal is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Universal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Universal cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Universal's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Universal's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Universal is based on a synthetically constructed Universaldaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Universal 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Universal on the next trading day is expected to be 50.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20, mean absolute percentage error of 1.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Universal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Universal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Universal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Universal | Universal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Universal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Universal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Universal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 49.12 and 52.70, respectively. We have considered Universal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Universal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Universal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 82.0125 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.8401 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2006 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0236 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 49.226 |
Predictive Modules for Universal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Universal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Universal
For every potential investor in Universal, whether a beginner or expert, Universal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Universal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Universal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Universal's price trends.Universal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Universal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Universal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Universal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Universal Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Universal's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Universal's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Universal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Universal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Universal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Universal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Universal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Universal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Universal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Universal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting universal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Variance | 3.26 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Universal is a strong investment it is important to analyze Universal's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Universal's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Universal Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Universal Stock please use our How to Invest in Universal guide.You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Complementary Tools for Universal Stock analysis
When running Universal's price analysis, check to measure Universal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Universal is operating at the current time. Most of Universal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Universal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Universal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Universal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Efficient Frontier Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market. | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Portfolio Analyzer Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine | |
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
| Risk-Return Analysis View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume | |
| USA ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA | |
| Economic Indicators Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals | |
| Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios |
Is Universal's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Universal. If investors know Universal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Universal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.269 | Dividend Share 3.19 | Earnings Share 5.32 | Revenue Per Share 107.58 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.033 |
The market value of Universal is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Universal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Universal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Universal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Universal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Universal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Universal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Universal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Universal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.