Univest Pennsylvania Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| UVSP Stock | USD 22.38 0.13 0.58% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Univest Pennsylvania on the next trading day is expected to be 22.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.31. Univest Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Univest Pennsylvania stock prices and determine the direction of Univest Pennsylvania's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Univest Pennsylvania's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Univest Pennsylvania's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Univest Pennsylvania's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Univest Pennsylvania fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Univest Pennsylvania to cross-verify your projections. Univest |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Univest Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Univest Pennsylvania's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Univest Pennsylvania's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Univest Pennsylvania stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Univest Pennsylvania's open interest, investors have to compare it to Univest Pennsylvania's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Univest Pennsylvania is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Univest. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Univest Pennsylvania cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Univest Pennsylvania's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Univest Pennsylvania's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Univest Pennsylvania is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Univest Pennsylvania 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Univest Pennsylvania on the next trading day is expected to be 22.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Univest Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Univest Pennsylvania's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Univest Pennsylvania Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Univest Pennsylvania | Univest Pennsylvania Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Univest Pennsylvania Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Univest Pennsylvania's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Univest Pennsylvania's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.09 and 24.43, respectively. We have considered Univest Pennsylvania's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Univest Pennsylvania stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Univest Pennsylvania stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.4095 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0954 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4536 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0225 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.31 |
Predictive Modules for Univest Pennsylvania
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Univest Pennsylvania. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Univest Pennsylvania's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Univest Pennsylvania
For every potential investor in Univest, whether a beginner or expert, Univest Pennsylvania's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Univest Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Univest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Univest Pennsylvania's price trends.View Univest Pennsylvania Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Univest Pennsylvania Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Univest Pennsylvania's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Univest Pennsylvania's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Univest Pennsylvania Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Univest Pennsylvania stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Univest Pennsylvania shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Univest Pennsylvania stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Univest Pennsylvania entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Univest Pennsylvania Risk Indicators
The analysis of Univest Pennsylvania's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Univest Pennsylvania's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting univest stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Variance | 4.93 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.52 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.86) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Univest Pennsylvania is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Univest Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Univest Pennsylvania Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Univest Pennsylvania Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Univest Pennsylvania to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Univest Stock, please use our How to Invest in Univest Pennsylvania guide.You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Complementary Tools for Univest Stock analysis
When running Univest Pennsylvania's price analysis, check to measure Univest Pennsylvania's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Univest Pennsylvania is operating at the current time. Most of Univest Pennsylvania's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Univest Pennsylvania's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Univest Pennsylvania's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Univest Pennsylvania to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Univest Pennsylvania's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Univest Pennsylvania. If investors know Univest will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Univest Pennsylvania listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | Dividend Share 0.84 | Earnings Share 2.39 | Revenue Per Share 9.711 | Return On Assets 0.0093 |
The market value of Univest Pennsylvania is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Univest that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Univest Pennsylvania's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Univest Pennsylvania's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Univest Pennsylvania's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Univest Pennsylvania's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Univest Pennsylvania's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Univest Pennsylvania is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Univest Pennsylvania's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.