Telus Corp Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| T Stock | CAD 22.32 0.21 0.95% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Telus Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 22.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.58. Telus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Telus Corp stock prices and determine the direction of Telus Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Telus Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Telus Corp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Telus Corp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Telus Corp fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Telus Corp to cross-verify your projections. Telus |
Most investors in Telus Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Telus Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Telus Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Telus Corp - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Telus Corp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Telus Corp price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Telus Corp. Telus Corp Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Telus Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 22.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Telus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Telus Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Telus Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
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Telus Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Telus Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Telus Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.31 and 23.37, respectively. We have considered Telus Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Telus Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Telus Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0202 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1763 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0078 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.5767 |
Predictive Modules for Telus Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Telus Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Telus Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Telus Corp
For every potential investor in Telus, whether a beginner or expert, Telus Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Telus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Telus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Telus Corp's price trends.Telus Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Telus Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Telus Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Telus Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Telus Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Telus Corp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Telus Corp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Telus Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Telus Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Telus Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Telus Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Telus Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 86299.36 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4565 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 22.2 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 22.24 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.23 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.21 |
Telus Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Telus Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Telus Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting telus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7874 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Variance | 1.06 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Telus Corp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Telus Corp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Telus Corp options trading.
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When determining whether Telus Corp is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Telus Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Telus Corp Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Telus Corp Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Telus Corp to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Telus Stock, please use our How to Invest in Telus Corp guide.You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Telus Stock analysis
When running Telus Corp's price analysis, check to measure Telus Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Telus Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Telus Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Telus Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Telus Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Telus Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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