Patrick Industries Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| PATK Stock | USD 111.13 0.79 0.72% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Patrick Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 108.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 229.49. Patrick Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Patrick Industries stock prices and determine the direction of Patrick Industries's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Patrick Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Patrick Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Patrick Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Patrick Industries fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Patrick Industries to cross-verify your projections. Patrick |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Patrick Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Patrick Industries' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Patrick Industries' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Patrick Industries stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Patrick Industries' open interest, investors have to compare it to Patrick Industries' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Patrick Industries is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Patrick. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Patrick Industries cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Patrick Industries' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Patrick Industries' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Patrick Industries price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. Patrick Industries Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Patrick Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 108.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.76, mean absolute percentage error of 19.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 229.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Patrick Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Patrick Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Patrick Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
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Patrick Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Patrick Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Patrick Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 106.39 and 110.30, respectively. We have considered Patrick Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Patrick Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Patrick Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.0909 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.7621 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0337 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 229.4873 |
Predictive Modules for Patrick Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Patrick Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Patrick Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Patrick Industries
For every potential investor in Patrick, whether a beginner or expert, Patrick Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Patrick Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Patrick. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Patrick Industries' price trends.Patrick Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Patrick Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Patrick Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Patrick Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Patrick Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Patrick Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Patrick Industries' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Patrick Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Patrick Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Patrick Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Patrick Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Patrick Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Patrick Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Patrick Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Patrick Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting patrick stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.95 | |||
| Variance | 3.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.32 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Patrick Industries Investors Sentiment
The influence of Patrick Industries' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Patrick. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Patrick Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Patrick. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Patrick can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Patrick Industries. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Patrick Industries' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Patrick Industries' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Patrick Industries' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Patrick Industries.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Patrick Industries in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Patrick Industries' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Patrick Industries options trading.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Patrick Industries to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Patrick Stock please use our How to buy in Patrick Stock guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Complementary Tools for Patrick Stock analysis
When running Patrick Industries' price analysis, check to measure Patrick Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Patrick Industries is operating at the current time. Most of Patrick Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Patrick Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Patrick Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Patrick Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Patrick Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Patrick Industries. If investors know Patrick will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Patrick Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | Dividend Share 1.9 | Earnings Share 6.51 | Revenue Per Share 161.162 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.18) |
The market value of Patrick Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Patrick that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Patrick Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Patrick Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Patrick Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Patrick Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Patrick Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Patrick Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Patrick Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.