Fortinet Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| FTNT Stock | USD 63.53 0.35 0.55% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Fortinet on the next trading day is expected to be 62.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.22. Fortinet Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fortinet stock prices and determine the direction of Fortinet's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fortinet's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fortinet to cross-verify your projections. Fortinet |
Most investors in Fortinet cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fortinet's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fortinet's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Fortinet polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Fortinet as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Fortinet Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Fortinet on the next trading day is expected to be 62.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.28, mean absolute percentage error of 2.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fortinet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fortinet's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fortinet Stock Forecast Pattern
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Fortinet Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fortinet's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fortinet's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 60.58 and 64.33, respectively. We have considered Fortinet's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fortinet stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fortinet stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9684 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2822 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0188 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 78.2164 |
Predictive Modules for Fortinet
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fortinet. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fortinet's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Fortinet
For every potential investor in Fortinet, whether a beginner or expert, Fortinet's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fortinet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fortinet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fortinet's price trends.Fortinet Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fortinet stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fortinet could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fortinet by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fortinet Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fortinet's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fortinet's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fortinet Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fortinet stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fortinet shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fortinet stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fortinet entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 115650.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2023 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 64.01 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 63.85 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.30) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.35 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.78 |
Fortinet Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fortinet's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fortinet's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fortinet stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Variance | 3.5 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fortinet to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Fortinet Stock please use our How to Invest in Fortinet guide.You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Complementary Tools for Fortinet Stock analysis
When running Fortinet's price analysis, check to measure Fortinet's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fortinet is operating at the current time. Most of Fortinet's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fortinet's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fortinet's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fortinet to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fortinet's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fortinet. If investors know Fortinet will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fortinet listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Fortinet is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fortinet that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fortinet's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fortinet's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fortinet's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fortinet's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fortinet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fortinet is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fortinet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.