PT Jaya Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| DUCK Stock | IDR 176.00 0.00 0.00% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of PT Jaya Bersama on the next trading day is expected to be 176.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.00. DUCK Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast PT Jaya stock prices and determine the direction of PT Jaya Bersama's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of PT Jaya's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PT Jaya to cross-verify your projections. DUCK |
Most investors in PT Jaya cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the PT Jaya's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets PT Jaya's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
PT Jaya polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for PT Jaya Bersama as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. PT Jaya Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of PT Jaya Bersama on the next trading day is expected to be 176.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.00, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DUCK Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PT Jaya's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PT Jaya Stock Forecast Pattern
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PT Jaya Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PT Jaya's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PT Jaya's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 176.00 and 176.00, respectively. We have considered PT Jaya's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PT Jaya stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PT Jaya stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | -9.223372036854776E14 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.0 |
Predictive Modules for PT Jaya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PT Jaya Bersama. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PT Jaya's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for PT Jaya
For every potential investor in DUCK, whether a beginner or expert, PT Jaya's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DUCK Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DUCK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PT Jaya's price trends.PT Jaya Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PT Jaya stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PT Jaya could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PT Jaya by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PT Jaya Bersama Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PT Jaya's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PT Jaya's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PT Jaya Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PT Jaya stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PT Jaya shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PT Jaya stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PT Jaya Bersama entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pair Trading with PT Jaya
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if PT Jaya position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in PT Jaya will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to PT Jaya could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace PT Jaya when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back PT Jaya - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling PT Jaya Bersama to buy it.
The correlation of PT Jaya is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as PT Jaya moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if PT Jaya Bersama moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for PT Jaya can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PT Jaya to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Complementary Tools for DUCK Stock analysis
When running PT Jaya's price analysis, check to measure PT Jaya's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PT Jaya is operating at the current time. Most of PT Jaya's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PT Jaya's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PT Jaya's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PT Jaya to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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