Compugen Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CGEN Stock | ILA 764.00 28.00 3.80% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Compugen on the next trading day is expected to be 744.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 34.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,082. Compugen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Compugen stock prices and determine the direction of Compugen's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Compugen's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. Compugen |
Most investors in Compugen cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Compugen's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Compugen's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Compugen is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Compugen value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Compugen Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Compugen on the next trading day is expected to be 744.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 34.13, mean absolute percentage error of 2,170, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,082.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Compugen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Compugen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Compugen Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Compugen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Compugen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 125.7931 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 34.135 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0404 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2082.2349 |
Predictive Modules for Compugen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Compugen. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Compugen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Compugen Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Compugen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Compugen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Compugen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Compugen Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Compugen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Compugen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Compugen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Compugen entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Compugen Risk Indicators
The analysis of Compugen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Compugen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting compugen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.48 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.09 | |||
| Variance | 37.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 22.29 | |||
| Semi Variance | 21.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Compugen in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Compugen's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Compugen options trading.
Pair Trading with Compugen
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Compugen position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Compugen will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Compugen Stock
| 0.59 | GLTC | Galileo Tech | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | INBR | Inbar Group Finance | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | EFNC | Erech Finance Cahalacha | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Compugen could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Compugen when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Compugen - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Compugen to buy it.
The correlation of Compugen is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Compugen moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Compugen moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Compugen can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Complementary Tools for Compugen Stock analysis
When running Compugen's price analysis, check to measure Compugen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Compugen is operating at the current time. Most of Compugen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Compugen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Compugen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Compugen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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