Blue Bird Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| BIRD Stock | IDR 1,530 30.00 1.92% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Blue Bird Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,486 with a mean absolute deviation of 26.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,622. Blue Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Blue Bird stock prices and determine the direction of Blue Bird Tbk's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Blue Bird's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Bird to cross-verify your projections. Blue |
Most investors in Blue Bird cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Blue Bird's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Blue Bird's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Blue Bird polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Blue Bird Tbk as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Blue Bird Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Blue Bird Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,486 with a mean absolute deviation of 26.58, mean absolute percentage error of 1,028, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,622.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Blue Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Blue Bird's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Blue Bird Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Blue Bird | Blue Bird Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Blue Bird Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Blue Bird's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Blue Bird's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,484 and 1,487, respectively. We have considered Blue Bird's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Blue Bird stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Blue Bird stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 125.046 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 26.5822 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0155 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1621.5114 |
Predictive Modules for Blue Bird
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Blue Bird Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Blue Bird's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Blue Bird
For every potential investor in Blue, whether a beginner or expert, Blue Bird's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Blue Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Blue. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Blue Bird's price trends.Blue Bird Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Blue Bird stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Blue Bird could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Blue Bird by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Blue Bird Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Blue Bird's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Blue Bird's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Blue Bird Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Blue Bird stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Blue Bird shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Blue Bird stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Blue Bird Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0255 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.75) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1550.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1543.33 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 40.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (35.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (30.00) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 57.49 |
Blue Bird Risk Indicators
The analysis of Blue Bird's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Blue Bird's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting blue stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Variance | 3.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Blue Bird in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Blue Bird's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Blue Bird options trading.
Pair Trading with Blue Bird
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Blue Bird position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Blue Bird will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Blue Stock
| 0.8 | BBRI | Bank Rakyat Indonesia | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | ASII | Astra International Tbk | PairCorr |
Moving against Blue Stock
| 0.75 | TPIA | Chandra Asri Petroch | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | MDKA | Merdeka Copper Gold | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Blue Bird could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Blue Bird when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Blue Bird - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Blue Bird Tbk to buy it.
The correlation of Blue Bird is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Blue Bird moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Blue Bird Tbk moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Blue Bird can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Bird to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Complementary Tools for Blue Stock analysis
When running Blue Bird's price analysis, check to measure Blue Bird's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blue Bird is operating at the current time. Most of Blue Bird's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blue Bird's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blue Bird's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blue Bird to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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