Banco Bradesco Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| BBD Stock | ARS 2,996 39.50 1.34% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Banco Bradesco DRC on the next trading day is expected to be 2,955 with a mean absolute deviation of 99.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,777. Banco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Banco Bradesco stock prices and determine the direction of Banco Bradesco DRC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Banco Bradesco's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Banco Bradesco to cross-verify your projections. Banco |
Most investors in Banco Bradesco cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Banco Bradesco's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Banco Bradesco's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Banco Bradesco DRC is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Banco Bradesco 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of May
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Banco Bradesco DRC on the next trading day is expected to be 2,955 with a mean absolute deviation of 99.60, mean absolute percentage error of 23,500, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,777.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Banco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Banco Bradesco's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Banco Bradesco Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Banco Bradesco | Banco Bradesco Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Banco Bradesco Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Banco Bradesco's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Banco Bradesco's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,952 and 2,958, respectively. We have considered Banco Bradesco's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Banco Bradesco stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Banco Bradesco stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.6616 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 42.0754 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 99.597 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0312 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5776.625 |
Predictive Modules for Banco Bradesco
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Banco Bradesco DRC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Banco Bradesco's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Banco Bradesco
For every potential investor in Banco, whether a beginner or expert, Banco Bradesco's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Banco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Banco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Banco Bradesco's price trends.Banco Bradesco Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Banco Bradesco stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Banco Bradesco could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Banco Bradesco by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Banco Bradesco DRC Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Banco Bradesco's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Banco Bradesco's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Banco Bradesco Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Banco Bradesco stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Banco Bradesco shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Banco Bradesco stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Banco Bradesco DRC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 244.37 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7822 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2979.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2985.17 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.0035 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 36.0 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 39.5 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 34.05 |
Banco Bradesco Risk Indicators
The analysis of Banco Bradesco's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Banco Bradesco's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting banco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.77 | |||
| Variance | 7.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Banco Bradesco in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Banco Bradesco's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Banco Bradesco options trading.
Pair Trading with Banco Bradesco
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Banco Bradesco position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Banco Bradesco will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Banco Stock
| 0.96 | BSBR | Banco Santander Brasil | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Banco Bradesco could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Banco Bradesco when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Banco Bradesco - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Banco Bradesco DRC to buy it.
The correlation of Banco Bradesco is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Banco Bradesco moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Banco Bradesco DRC moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Banco Bradesco can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Banco Bradesco to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Banco Bradesco DRC information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Banco Bradesco's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Complementary Tools for Banco Stock analysis
When running Banco Bradesco's price analysis, check to measure Banco Bradesco's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Banco Bradesco is operating at the current time. Most of Banco Bradesco's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Banco Bradesco's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Banco Bradesco's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Banco Bradesco to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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