Bank Central Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| BBCA Stock | IDR 9,875 75.00 0.77% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Bank Central Asia on the next trading day is expected to be 9,605 with a mean absolute deviation of 122.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,446. Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bank Central stock prices and determine the direction of Bank Central Asia's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bank Central's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank Central to cross-verify your projections. Bank |
Most investors in Bank Central cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bank Central's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bank Central's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Bank Central polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Bank Central Asia as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Bank Central Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Bank Central Asia on the next trading day is expected to be 9,605 with a mean absolute deviation of 122.07, mean absolute percentage error of 23,923, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,446.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank Central's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bank Central Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bank Central | Bank Central Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bank Central Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bank Central's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank Central's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9,603 and 9,606, respectively. We have considered Bank Central's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank Central stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank Central stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 128.1931 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 122.0714 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0126 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7446.3564 |
Predictive Modules for Bank Central
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Central Asia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bank Central's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Bank Central
For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank Central's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank Central's price trends.Bank Central Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank Central stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank Central could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank Central by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bank Central Asia Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank Central's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank Central's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bank Central Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank Central stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank Central shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank Central stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank Central Asia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bank Central Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bank Central's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank Central's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Variance | 2.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.9 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.32) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bank Central in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Bank Central's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Bank Central options trading.
Pair Trading with Bank Central
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bank Central position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bank Central will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Bank Stock
| 0.64 | MMIX | Multi Medika Interna | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | BYAN | Bayan Resources Tbk Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | MBAP | Mitrabara Adiperdana | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bank Central could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bank Central when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bank Central - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bank Central Asia to buy it.
The correlation of Bank Central is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bank Central moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bank Central Asia moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bank Central can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank Central to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Complementary Tools for Bank Stock analysis
When running Bank Central's price analysis, check to measure Bank Central's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bank Central is operating at the current time. Most of Bank Central's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bank Central's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bank Central's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bank Central to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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