COWELL FASHION Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 033290 Stock | KRW 3,200 35.00 1.11% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of COWELL FASHION CoLtd on the next trading day is expected to be 3,177 with a mean absolute deviation of 114.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,129. COWELL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast COWELL FASHION stock prices and determine the direction of COWELL FASHION CoLtd's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of COWELL FASHION's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of COWELL FASHION to cross-verify your projections. COWELL |
Most investors in COWELL FASHION cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the COWELL FASHION's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets COWELL FASHION's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for COWELL FASHION is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of COWELL FASHION CoLtd value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. COWELL FASHION Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of COWELL FASHION CoLtd on the next trading day is expected to be 3,177 with a mean absolute deviation of 114.99, mean absolute percentage error of 33,410, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,129.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict COWELL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that COWELL FASHION's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
COWELL FASHION Stock Forecast Pattern
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COWELL FASHION Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting COWELL FASHION's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. COWELL FASHION's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3,173 and 3,182, respectively. We have considered COWELL FASHION's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of COWELL FASHION stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent COWELL FASHION stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 130.365 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 114.9861 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.033 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7129.1376 |
Predictive Modules for COWELL FASHION
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as COWELL FASHION CoLtd. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of COWELL FASHION's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for COWELL FASHION
For every potential investor in COWELL, whether a beginner or expert, COWELL FASHION's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. COWELL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in COWELL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying COWELL FASHION's price trends.COWELL FASHION Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with COWELL FASHION stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of COWELL FASHION could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing COWELL FASHION by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
COWELL FASHION CoLtd Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of COWELL FASHION's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of COWELL FASHION's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
COWELL FASHION Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how COWELL FASHION stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading COWELL FASHION shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying COWELL FASHION stock market strength indicators, traders can identify COWELL FASHION CoLtd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
COWELL FASHION Risk Indicators
The analysis of COWELL FASHION's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in COWELL FASHION's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cowell stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.92 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.08 | |||
| Variance | 25.76 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards COWELL FASHION in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, COWELL FASHION's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from COWELL FASHION options trading.
Thematic Opportunities
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of COWELL FASHION to cross-verify your projections. Note that the COWELL FASHION CoLtd information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other COWELL FASHION's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Complementary Tools for COWELL Stock analysis
When running COWELL FASHION's price analysis, check to measure COWELL FASHION's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy COWELL FASHION is operating at the current time. Most of COWELL FASHION's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of COWELL FASHION's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move COWELL FASHION's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of COWELL FASHION to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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