Holmen AB (Sweden) Market Value
| HOLM-A Stock | SEK 427.00 6.00 1.43% |
| Symbol | Holmen |
Holmen AB 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Holmen AB's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Holmen AB.
| 04/01/2024 |
| 05/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Holmen AB on April 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Holmen AB or generate 0.0% return on investment in Holmen AB over 30 days. Holmen AB is related to or competes with Svenska Cellulosa, BillerudKorsnas, Boliden AB, Husqvarna, and Trelleborg. Holmen Aktiebolag manufactures and sells papers, paperboards, and wood products worldwide More
Holmen AB Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Holmen AB's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Holmen AB upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Information Ratio | 9.0E-4 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.75 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.65) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.68 |
Holmen AB Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Holmen AB's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Holmen AB's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Holmen AB historical prices to predict the future Holmen AB's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0383 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0334 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 8.0E-4 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1463 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Holmen AB's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Holmen AB Backtested Returns
We consider Holmen AB very steady. Holmen AB holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0854, which attests that the entity had a 0.0854% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Holmen AB, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please check out Holmen AB's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0383, downside deviation of 1.17, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1563 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0934%. Holmen AB has a performance score of 6 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.34, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Holmen AB's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Holmen AB is expected to be smaller as well. Holmen AB right now retains a risk of 1.09%. Please check out Holmen AB total risk alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to decide if Holmen AB will be following its current trending patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.49 |
Modest reverse predictability
Holmen AB has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Holmen AB time series from 1st of April 2024 to 16th of April 2024 and 16th of April 2024 to 1st of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Holmen AB price movement. The serial correlation of -0.49 indicates that about 49.0% of current Holmen AB price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.49 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.29 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 18.41 |
Holmen AB lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Holmen AB stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Holmen AB's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Holmen AB returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Holmen AB has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Holmen AB regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Holmen AB stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Holmen AB stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Holmen AB stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Holmen AB Lagged Returns
When evaluating Holmen AB's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Holmen AB stock have on its future price. Holmen AB autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Holmen AB autocorrelation shows the relationship between Holmen AB stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Holmen AB.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Holmen AB in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Holmen AB's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Holmen AB options trading.
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Complementary Tools for Holmen Stock analysis
When running Holmen AB's price analysis, check to measure Holmen AB's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Holmen AB is operating at the current time. Most of Holmen AB's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Holmen AB's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Holmen AB's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Holmen AB to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Holmen AB technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.