Harmony Gold Mining Stock Market Value
| HGMCF Stock | USD 9.00 0.16 1.81% |
| Symbol | Harmony |
Harmony Gold 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Harmony Gold's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Harmony Gold.
| 03/30/2024 |
| 04/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Harmony Gold on March 30, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Harmony Gold Mining or generate 0.0% return on investment in Harmony Gold over 30 days. Harmony Gold is related to or competes with Osisko Mining, Almadex Minerals, Galiano Gold, and US Gold. Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of gold More
Harmony Gold Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Harmony Gold's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Harmony Gold Mining upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.1739 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 21.51 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.65) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.91 |
Harmony Gold Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Harmony Gold's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Harmony Gold's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Harmony Gold historical prices to predict the future Harmony Gold's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1324 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.609 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2465 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.6153 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Harmony Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Harmony Gold Mining Backtested Returns
Harmony Gold appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. Harmony Gold Mining holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.17, which attests that the entity had a 0.17% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By evaluating Harmony Gold's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.62% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Harmony Gold's Standard Deviation of 3.56, risk adjusted performance of 0.1324, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.6253 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Harmony Gold holds a performance score of 13. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.14, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Harmony Gold returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Harmony Gold is expected to follow. Please check Harmony Gold's potential upside, as well as the relationship between the daily balance of power and day typical price , to make a quick decision on whether Harmony Gold's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.63 |
Good predictability
Harmony Gold Mining has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Harmony Gold time series from 30th of March 2024 to 14th of April 2024 and 14th of April 2024 to 29th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Harmony Gold Mining price movement. The serial correlation of 0.63 indicates that roughly 63.0% of current Harmony Gold price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.63 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.66 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Harmony Gold Mining lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Harmony Gold pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Harmony Gold's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Harmony Gold returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Harmony Gold has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Harmony Gold regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Harmony Gold pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Harmony Gold pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Harmony Gold pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Harmony Gold Lagged Returns
When evaluating Harmony Gold's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Harmony Gold pink sheet have on its future price. Harmony Gold autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Harmony Gold autocorrelation shows the relationship between Harmony Gold pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Harmony Gold Mining.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Harmony Gold in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Harmony Gold's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Harmony Gold options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Harmony Gold Correlation, Harmony Gold Volatility and Harmony Gold Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Harmony Gold. Note that the Harmony Gold Mining information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Harmony Gold's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Complementary Tools for Harmony Pink Sheet analysis
When running Harmony Gold's price analysis, check to measure Harmony Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harmony Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Harmony Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harmony Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harmony Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harmony Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Harmony Gold technical pink sheet analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, pink sheet market cycles, or different charting patterns.