Tributary Smallmid Cap Fund Market Value
| FSMBX Fund | USD 15.71 0.18 1.16% |
| Symbol | Tributary |
Tributary Smallmid 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Tributary Smallmid's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Tributary Smallmid.
| 05/14/2022 |
| 05/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Tributary Smallmid on May 14, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Tributary Smallmid Cap or generate 0.0% return on investment in Tributary Smallmid over 720 days. Tributary Smallmid is related to or competes with Balanced Fund, Balanced Fund, Income Fund, Income Fund, Short Intermediate, Small Pany, and Small Pany. Under normal market conditions, the Advisor intends to invest at least 80 percent of its assets in common stocks and sec... More
Tributary Smallmid Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Tributary Smallmid's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Tributary Smallmid Cap upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.08 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.51) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.36 |
Tributary Smallmid Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Tributary Smallmid's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Tributary Smallmid's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Tributary Smallmid historical prices to predict the future Tributary Smallmid's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0174 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0081 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tributary Smallmid's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tributary Smallmid Cap Backtested Returns
We consider Tributary Smallmid very steady. Tributary Smallmid Cap owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0702, which indicates the fund had a 0.0702% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Tributary Smallmid Cap, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Tributary Smallmid's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0174, semi deviation of 1.05, and Coefficient Of Variation of 4557.18 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0649%. The entity has a beta of 1.36, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Tributary Smallmid will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | 0.24 |
Weak predictability
Tributary Smallmid Cap has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Tributary Smallmid time series from 14th of May 2022 to 9th of May 2023 and 9th of May 2023 to 3rd of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Tributary Smallmid Cap price movement. The serial correlation of 0.24 indicates that over 24.0% of current Tributary Smallmid price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.24 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.05 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.76 |
Tributary Smallmid Cap lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Tributary Smallmid mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Tributary Smallmid's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Tributary Smallmid returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Tributary Smallmid has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Tributary Smallmid regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Tributary Smallmid mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Tributary Smallmid mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Tributary Smallmid mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Tributary Smallmid Lagged Returns
When evaluating Tributary Smallmid's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Tributary Smallmid mutual fund have on its future price. Tributary Smallmid autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Tributary Smallmid autocorrelation shows the relationship between Tributary Smallmid mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Tributary Smallmid Cap.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Tributary Smallmid in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Tributary Smallmid's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Tributary Smallmid options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Tributary Smallmid Correlation, Tributary Smallmid Volatility and Tributary Smallmid Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Tributary Smallmid. Note that the Tributary Smallmid Cap information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Tributary Smallmid's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Tributary Smallmid technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.