Arch Resources Stock Market Value
| ARCH Stock | USD 161.43 3.04 1.92% |
| Symbol | Arch |
Arch Resources Price To Book Ratio
Is Arch Resources' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arch Resources. If investors know Arch will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arch Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.70) | Dividend Share 9.2 | Earnings Share 17.16 | Revenue Per Share 159.259 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.22) |
The market value of Arch Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arch that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arch Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arch Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arch Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arch Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arch Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arch Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arch Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Arch Resources 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Arch Resources' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Arch Resources.
| 04/04/2024 |
| 05/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Arch Resources on April 4, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Arch Resources or generate 0.0% return on investment in Arch Resources over 30 days. Arch Resources is related to or competes with Westwater Resources, Aqua Metals, Pioneer Power, Hall Of, and Iterum Therapeutics. Arch Resources, Inc. produces and sells thermal and metallurgical coal from surface and underground mines More
Arch Resources Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Arch Resources' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Arch Resources upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.87 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.97) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.89 |
Arch Resources Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Arch Resources' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Arch Resources' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Arch Resources historical prices to predict the future Arch Resources' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.16) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.35) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.15) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arch Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arch Resources Backtested Returns
Arch Resources secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.022, which signifies that the company had a -0.022% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Arch Resources exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Arch Resources' risk adjusted performance of (0.02), and Mean Deviation of 1.71 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.76, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Arch Resources' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Arch Resources is expected to be smaller as well. Arch Resources has an expected return of -0.0489%. Please make sure to confirm Arch Resources value at risk, rate of daily change, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and kurtosis , to decide if Arch Resources performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.29 |
Weak reverse predictability
Arch Resources has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Arch Resources time series from 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024 and 19th of April 2024 to 4th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Arch Resources price movement. The serial correlation of -0.29 indicates that nearly 29.0% of current Arch Resources price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.29 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.24 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 8.63 |
Arch Resources lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Arch Resources stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Arch Resources' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Arch Resources returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Arch Resources has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Arch Resources regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Arch Resources stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Arch Resources stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Arch Resources stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Arch Resources Lagged Returns
When evaluating Arch Resources' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Arch Resources stock have on its future price. Arch Resources autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Arch Resources autocorrelation shows the relationship between Arch Resources stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Arch Resources.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Arch Resources
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Arch Resources position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Arch Resources will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Arch Stock
| 0.61 | AMR | Alpha Metallurgical Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.79 | METC | Ramaco Resources | PairCorr |
Moving against Arch Stock
| 0.66 | FF | FutureFuel Corp Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.57 | AG | First Majestic Silver Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | DD | Dupont De Nemours Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | HL | Hecla Mining Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.55 | AA | Alcoa Corp Financial Report 17th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Arch Resources could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Arch Resources when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Arch Resources - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Arch Resources to buy it.
The correlation of Arch Resources is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Arch Resources moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Arch Resources moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Arch Resources can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Arch Resources Correlation, Arch Resources Volatility and Arch Resources Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Arch Resources. For more detail on how to invest in Arch Stock please use our How to Invest in Arch Resources guide.Note that the Arch Resources information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arch Resources' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Complementary Tools for Arch Stock analysis
When running Arch Resources' price analysis, check to measure Arch Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arch Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Arch Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arch Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arch Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arch Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Arch Resources technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.