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ATT Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

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T -- USA Stock  

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Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast ATT historic stock prices and determine the direction of ATT future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of ATT historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of ATT systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of ATT fundamentals over time. Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of ATT to cross-verify your projections.
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A naive forecasting model for ATT is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ATT value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of ATT on the next trading day is expected to be 37.192526

ATT Stock Forecast Pattern

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ATT Forecasted Value

Market Value
38.05
February 27, 2020
37.19
Expected Value
39.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria117.9265
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2763
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0072
SAESum of the absolute errors17.1334
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ATT. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

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ATT Risk Indicators

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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of ATT to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.