OReilly Automotive Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

ORLY Stock  USD 1,044  10.20  0.97%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of OReilly Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 1,035 with a mean absolute deviation of  13.46  and the sum of the absolute errors of 821.32. OReilly Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast OReilly Automotive stock prices and determine the direction of OReilly Automotive's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of OReilly Automotive's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although OReilly Automotive's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of OReilly Automotive's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of OReilly Automotive fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OReilly Automotive to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy OReilly Stock please use our How to Invest in OReilly Automotive guide.
  
At this time, OReilly Automotive's Fixed Asset Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is likely to rise to 1.33 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 1.69 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 81.1 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to rise to about 2.6 B in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 OReilly Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast OReilly Automotive's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in OReilly Automotive's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for OReilly Automotive stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current OReilly Automotive's open interest, investors have to compare it to OReilly Automotive's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of OReilly Automotive is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in OReilly. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in OReilly Automotive cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the OReilly Automotive's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets OReilly Automotive's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
OReilly Automotive polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for OReilly Automotive as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

OReilly Automotive Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of OReilly Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 1,035 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.46, mean absolute percentage error of 288.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 821.32.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OReilly Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OReilly Automotive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

OReilly Automotive Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest OReilly AutomotiveOReilly Automotive Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

OReilly Automotive Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting OReilly Automotive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OReilly Automotive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,034 and 1,036, respectively. We have considered OReilly Automotive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,044
1,035
Expected Value
1,036
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OReilly Automotive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OReilly Automotive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.7756
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation13.4642
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0124
SAESum of the absolute errors821.3168
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the OReilly Automotive historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for OReilly Automotive

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OReilly Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of OReilly Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,0531,0541,055
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
947.49948.721,160
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,0521,1021,152
Details
29 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
930.571,0231,135
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as OReilly Automotive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against OReilly Automotive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, OReilly Automotive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in OReilly Automotive.

Other Forecasting Options for OReilly Automotive

For every potential investor in OReilly, whether a beginner or expert, OReilly Automotive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OReilly Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OReilly. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OReilly Automotive's price trends.

OReilly Automotive Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OReilly Automotive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OReilly Automotive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OReilly Automotive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

OReilly Automotive Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of OReilly Automotive's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of OReilly Automotive's current price.

OReilly Automotive Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OReilly Automotive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OReilly Automotive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OReilly Automotive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OReilly Automotive entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

OReilly Automotive Risk Indicators

The analysis of OReilly Automotive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OReilly Automotive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oreilly stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether OReilly Automotive offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of OReilly Automotive's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Oreilly Automotive Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Oreilly Automotive Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OReilly Automotive to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy OReilly Stock please use our How to Invest in OReilly Automotive guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

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Is OReilly Automotive's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of OReilly Automotive. If investors know OReilly will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about OReilly Automotive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.107
Earnings Share
38.46
Revenue Per Share
261.468
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.051
Return On Assets
0.1504
The market value of OReilly Automotive is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of OReilly that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of OReilly Automotive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is OReilly Automotive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because OReilly Automotive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect OReilly Automotive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between OReilly Automotive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if OReilly Automotive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, OReilly Automotive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.